Each year, we hear about the possibility of shocking cut candidates, but this season might just be different. We’ve heard the buzz about Kendrick Bourne, Anfernee Jennings, and Cole Strange being given their marching orders, but now it seems a starter and a player with a massive contract may be shown the exit.

I predicted Kyle Dugger would be cut back in May, but now it seems like a very real possibility.

Dugger inked a $58 million contract last offseason, which puts him in the same neighborhood as stars like Xavier McKinney, Jessie Bates, and Jevon Holland.

Despite the payday, he had by far the worst year of his career last season: just seven safeties in the entire league had a worse PFF coverage grade than he did (34.8), as he came in 164th in the league. Overall, just 14 safeties graded worse than his 44.3 overall PFF grade.

Kyle Dugger looks to be on his way out of the Patriots this preseason

Considering the richness of his contract, one would have expected him to rebound this offseason. He also played injured for the majority of last season, but the Lenoir-Rhyne product has historically struggled as a coverage player.

Now, he’s been taking reps with the backups, and a third of his snaps through preseason have been as a linebacker.

An uptick in snaps against Minnesota was a bad sign for Dugger. Compared to his 18 against the Commanders, he played 45 defensive plays against the Vikings. For context, new star defensive tackle Milton Williams played 13 in the first week, not far off of Dugger’s Week 1 total, but just eight snaps in Week 2. Dugger is firmly a backup with one preseason game to go.

Jabrill Peppers and Jaylinn Hawkins seem the starters for the time being, and Craig Woodson is the top backup. Super Bowl Champion Marcus Epps was also signed to a contract this offseason and has posted a 74.1 PFF grade through two weeks. Even 2024 UDFA Dell Pettus has parlayed his promising 2024 into a 79.8 PFF grade through the first two games.

The Patriots have options at safety, and given his contract, I’m not sure Dugger should be one of them. Releasing him would save just $1.1 million this season, but would split his dead cap hit to $14 million and $9 million, respectively, over the next two seasons. It isn’t unreasonable that someone tries to reignite the fire he showed in his second and third seasons (he had seven total interceptions), but I wouldn’t count on it.

I’d say it’s only a matter of time before the safety is playing elsewhere, and unfortunately, I’m not sure there’s anything he can do about it.