The first thing to think about when it comes to the blood clot that has sidelined Zack Wheeler is his health. These are not things to be trifled with. Many of us know people that have been affected by something as seemingly simple as a blood clot and what it has the potential to do. This is not a knee sprain or elbow soreness; this is something that can be life altering, let along career altering. We don’t know the extent just yet, so anything like this is pure speculation, but the foremost thought should always be the player’s health.
However, assuming that Wheeler is done for this season (again, we don’t know the actual outcome as of this writing), there is some roster construction stuff to wonder about.
What about the six man rotation?
Prior to Wheeler getting hurt, the team had talked about switching to a six man rotation with Aaron Nola returning to give everyone some breathing room and to keep everyone that was throwing well in the rotation (i.e. Taijuan Walker). Is this still a thing? One would have to assume that it will not be, that the rest of the rotation will simply have to deal with staying on turn. The only other two options that the team would have would be bringing Joe Ross into the rotation or promoting Andrew Painter and giving him a spot start or two.
Putting Ross into the rotation would be a mistake as it would deprive the bullpen of one of the only arms capable of giving them length in case of a blowout, something that would be valuable with the unit down to seven relievers instead of eight. It would be putting the others at risk of overuse, even if they haven’t been used as much as other bullpens during the season. Bringing up Painter to make his debut might be an option, but he hasn’t truly done that much in his starts of late that would scream “major leaguer”. He wouldn’t have as deep a bullpen to rely on if he were to struggle, so perhaps the team simply stands put and alters their plan of having a six man rotation.
Who is #2?
Cristopher Sanchez can easily assume the role of staff ace for the Phillies since he’s already probably one of the three best pitchers in the National League. Many teams would see the injury to Wheeler as something of a season ender and it’s still very bad for a team as dependent on the their starting pitching as the Phillies are. Yet they are fortunate to have someone of Sanchez’s caliber to take that step up.
The issue becomes: who is behind him?
One of the things having two starting pitchers as good as Wheeler and Sanchez is that they would have the advantage over pretty much every team in the National League playoff picture in that department. With Wheeler down, now they’re brought back to the pack a bit. Someone will need to step up and grab that second role in the rotation, but who?
Ranger Suarez? His last five starts have been pretty bad.
Aaron Nola? If Sunday is any indication (and I’m inclined to give him something of a pass for his first start off the injured list), there are more questions than answers.
Jesus Luzardo? The inconsistency is still something of an issue, even if he has looked better his last four starts.
Taijuan Walker?
The advantage that they have over teams with their starting rotation is still there, if a bit dimmed. Look at other teams in contention and what they are trotting out as a unit and the edge still goes to Philadelphia. It’s thinner and the margin for error has gotten smaller, but someone is going to have to step up and seize control of the second starter’s job.
Can the bullpen step up?
One of the reasons why the team was so excited to have such a good rotation was that the innings they are able to give the team provides some cover for a bullpen that was leaking oil for most of the season. However, there has been improvement with the acquisition of Jhoan Duran and the signing of David Robertson. A group of relievers that didn’t truly instill fear in anyone suddenly looks better equipped to handle the innings being sent their way.
Now they just have to keep proving it
Since trading for and signing those two reinforcements, the team has seen improvement. Their reliever ERA since August 1 is 2.04, second in baseball. It’s not much of a fluke either as their FIP during that same time period is 2.99, fourth in baseball. They’ve become a legitimately good bullpen with the simple idea of having a set, dominant closer and giving everyone else a new, more suitable role. Some of it might be a sprinkling of luck with the BABIP being under .200 during that time, but from the simple eye test, there looks to be more confidence exuding from the relievers.
Can the offense find some consistency?
Not everything will of course be on the pitching staff. At some point, for this offense to go the places they want to go, they’re going to have hit night in and night out. There cannot be stretches where the entirety of the unit goes cold. The way baseball works, there are going to be hitters that are simply not performing well. It’s the nature of the game. With the Phillies, the subjective, emotional point of view is that the whole group goes stone cold together or gets white hot together, that there is no in between. On the season, they’re in the top half of the league in wRC+ (104), score more than enough runs (564, 11th in baseball), slug in the top ten offenses in the game (.404, 10th in baseball) and get on base at a solid clip (.323 OBP, seventh in baseball). By most measures, it’s not a bad offense at all. It’s just not one that does it on a nightly basis.
That’s going to have to change.
Losing Wheeler is a massive blow. If we were to create a list of players the team could ill afford to lose as they chase the World Series trophy, he is at the top. But lost he is and the team is going to have to adjust. They still have the talent to get deep into the postseason. It just got a little bit more difficult.
