The Braves are, as everyone is aware at this point, not having a very Braves-esque season. They’re playing out the string, and while they did their best to dent the playoff hopes of the Reds, Marlins, and Mets recently, that sort of “particularly nasty speed bump” status is what they’ve been relegated to at this point.
The Guardians, though, are 63-57, 6.5 games back in the AL Central, but just a half-game behind the Yankees for a playoff spot. Their playoff odds of roughly 1-in-3 are pretty similar to where they started the season (1-in-4), and pretty similar for where the team has been overall for the last while: from 2020-2025, they’ve basically been in the fringy contender (10-50 percent playoff odds) at the beginning of each season. After three straight playoff appearances and 90+-win seasons from 2016-2018, they somehow missed the playoffs with 93 wins in 2019, ushering in their current streak of alternating seasons in which they do and do not make the postseason. They made the postseason with a 92-win division crown last year, and are looking to break the pattern this year, though they’ve got some work to do there.
One thing that’s made them relevant and more likely to break the pattern this season is that the Guardians come into this game with an actual record seven wins better than their BaseRuns record, tops in MLB. The Braves, at -6, “trail” only the Yankees in doing the reverse. They have the tenth-worst run differential, have scored the fifth-fewest runs per game, and have allowed a middling 13th-fewest runs per game. They rank 23rd in position player fWAR, 19th in pitching fWAR, have MLB’s worst offensive xwOBA (yes, below the Rockies), and really, it’s hard to find a topline thing that they excel in.
So, how are they where they are? You might be tempted to guess one-run games, but they’re just 17-15 in those contests. No, it’s really just about a bullpen that’s effective and limits homers aaaaaand…. that’s really all I got. It’s not about depth, as they have more guys in the position player side that are sub-replacement (nine) than they have above replacement (eight). The Cleveland Pitching Factory stuff certainly helps, as they haven’t had anyone be outright awful when starting and the bullpen is both incredibly good at the top end (Cade Smith, the now-suspended Emmanuel Clase) and very deep. But, this is mostly a story about a team that had a ten-game losing streak in late June through early July, and has gone 23-9 since.
In true Cleveland Pitching Factory fashion, the guy pitching for them tonight is an entirely-unheralded sophomore who has pitched very well. Joey Cantillo started the season in the bullpen and did well as a long relief type, got stretched out in the minors in June, and has come back and been really impressive as a starter: a 109 ERA-, 86 FIP-, and 91 xFIP- in seven starts, with really only two rough outings and a bunch more really good ones. He was at 123/101/84 last year and is at 102/95/86 this year, so basically he’s yet another peripherals master that is somewhat homer-prone as he gets acclimated to what you can and can’t do in the majors. He doesn’t throw hard, but his changeup has a whiff rate north of 50 percent and the curve has great shape, which takes the edge off an inconsistent command profile — but fortunately for him, his misses tend to be in the zone, and hitters frequently can’t connect with the curve and changeup there anyway.
So many words about Cleveland, but I guess the Braves are playing in this one too, and they’ll be sending Hurston Waldrep to the hill for his first “regular” start of the season. Waldrep was previously the bulk guy in the resumption of the suspended game in Bristol, and then got a start in a doubleheader, and this is just a humdrum Friday night series opener assignment for him after all that excitement. He, too, has pitched quite well: a 4/2 K/BB ratio against the Reds in Bristol, and then a 6/1 K/BB ratio against the Marlins. That’s a 37/55/91 combined line, and while the Guardians aren’t hitting well on their run, either (92 wRC+ in August; 105 since their amazing run after the 10-game losing streak), they also haven’t scored fewer than three runs in a game for about three weeks, so they’ll probably get their licks in somewhere.
Waldrep’s command has also been spotty so far, but it hasn’t stopped his splitter from bamboozling hitters. He’s been able to spot his cutter and curveball better, and though it’s been hit fairly well, the cutter has done a nice job giving hitters a “weird” look that helps set up the other stuff while not being quite as crushable as the four-seamer he used to rely on.
Game Date/Time: Friday, August 15, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
TV: FanDuel Sports South / Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
