Yankees Cut Ties With $24 Million Pitcher in Latest Prediction

Getty Aaron Boone speaking

The New York Yankees paved the way for Clay Holmes to walk in free agency this winter after giving the closer role to right-hander Luke Weaver. While the decision was the right one, Holmes is still a valuable arm and might put it together for a new club.

However, Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report doesn’t expect that to be with the Yankees, predicting him to depart in the winter for a two-year, $24 million deal.

“Clay Holmes was an All-Star for the second time in three years this past campaign for the New York Yankees, posting a 2.77 ERA in 40 games during the first half of the season,” Kelly wrote on November 11. “However, the 31-year-old lost the closer’s job late in the 2024 season, posting a 3.75 ERA in 27 games following the All-Star break.

“However, the control problems that plagued him down the stretch of the regular season are hard to put out of your mind, and likely mean A) he won’t be back with the Yankees and B) he’s not going to make as much money as it once appeared he would. Still, there will be plenty of contenders interested in Holmes, likely enough that he’ll be able to get a multi-year deal if that’s what he wants.”

Why the Yankees Could Move on From Holmes

Holmes, an All-Star in 2024, has shown above-average stuff on the mound during his career. The New York Yankees might believe that his stuff will play eventually and credit his rough showing to bad luck, but for $12 million AAV, they could look to take a different route.

Holmes struck out just 68 hitters in 63.0 innings pitched, which is a concern for a team like the Yankees. That’s why Phillip Martinez of SNY believes the Yankees should let him walk, highlighting how poorly their defense is.

“After blowing eight saves in his first two full seasons with the Yankees, Holmes would blow 13(!) saves in 2024, which led to him being moved to the middle of the bullpen. He finished with a 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, both of which were his highest since 2021 when he started with the Pirates. The issue with Holmes is his lack of strikeouts.

“He struck out 68 batters in 63.0 innings pitched this season and relies heavily on the ground ball. But when your defense is as maligned as the Yankees’ is, especially in the infield, that is a recipe for disaster… Heading into his age-32 season, Holmes’ strikeouts will likely continue to decrease over time, and if he’s looking for closer money the Yankees should look elsewhere,” Martinez wrote on November 6. “Again, GM Brian Cashman does know how to build a bullpen, and with Luke Weaver back in 2025 they won’t need Holmes to be their closer anymore.”

Should the Yankees Let Holmes Walk?

If it weren’t for Weaver coming in and saving the New York Yankees bullpen late in the year, their decision with Holmes would be much more challenging than it seems.

However, Weaver was lights out in his short stint as the closer, finishing the campaign with a 2.89 ERA and striking out 103 hitters in 84.0 innings pitched.

If the Yankees were to re-sign Holmes on a smaller deal, say $8 million AAV, he’d have value. Unfortunately for the Yankees, that isn’t expected.

If Holmes signs with a new team, it wouldn’t be surprising for him to find success, but his time with the Yankees is up.

Jon Conahan covers the NBA and NFL for Heavy.com. Since 2019, his sports coverage has appeared at Sports Illustrated, oddschecker, ClutchPoints and Sportskeeda. More about Jon Conahan