I’m not even sure why I’m bothering to write this, because of this passage in a recent Sahadev Sharma/Patrick Mooney article in The Athletic:

The Cubs do not intend to deviate from this course, multiple sources told The Athletic, ruling out a pursuit of Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes even before all the baseball executives and agents checked out of the JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort and Spa. Rather than pursuing talent at the top of the free agent market, the Cubs appear positioned to make noise in the trade market.

I promise I’ll talk about the trade market later in this series.

But let’s talk about Corbin Burnes anyway, even though it seems a longshot for the Cubs to sign him. The Cubs certainly could fit a nine-figure pitching contract under their current budget limit.

Obviously, Cubs manager Craig Counsell is quite familiar with Burnes, who pitched for him for six seasons in Milwaukee. That included a Cy Young season for Burnes and three playoff years. So would Counsell want him in the Cubs rotation? Without specifically asking Counsell, I’d have to think the answer is “Yes.”

There are some concerns about Burnes. While he is still a very good pitcher, his numbers are a tick down from his 2021 Cy Young season, where he led the majors in strikeout rate, FIP and fewest home runs per nine innings (just seven in 167 innings). In 2022 he led the NL in strikeouts with 234, but his K rate in 2024 was his lowest since he became a rotation starter in 2019. So it would appear that he’s still very good — but is he good enough to be the highest-ranked starting pitcher on the open market? He posted a 3.4 bWAR season in 2024. That’s better than any Cubs pitcher this past season (Shōta Imanaga led with 3.0), but again, that’s down quite a bit from his 5.3 bWAR year in 2021.

MLB Trade Rumors ranks Burnes as their No. 2 free agent this year, second only to Juan Soto, and says he could get a seven-year, $200 million deal.

Personally, if I’m Jed Hoyer I wouldn’t do that. Some team might. Would you? For Burnes I might go five years, $140 million, with a sixth-year vesting option/buyout sort of thing.

Have at it.