The Chicago Cubs enter the month of the trade deadline with very clear needs for Jed Hoyer to address. The biggest need of all is in their starting rotation. Sandy Alcantara, understandably, is a pitcher Cubs fans have been clamoring for really since Opening Day. While he’s a big name, he continues to prove the Cubs should go in another direction.
Facing a Cincinnati Reds team that managed to score a total of three runs in the first two games of this week’s series against Alcantara’s Miami Marlins, Alcantara allowed three runs in the first inning and three more in the fourth. Overall, he allowed six runs on nine hits in five innings of work and departed the contest with Miami trailing, 6-0.
Every pitcher has clunkers, but this has become the norm for Alcantara. Yes, he was once one of MLB’s best starting pitchers, but it’s not 2023 anymore. The Cubs must prioritize pitchers who can help them in 2025 and beyond. Alcantara certainly doesn’t fit the first part of that statement, even if there’s bounce-back potential.
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Cubs must do better than Sandy Alcantara at the trade deadline
Alcantara entered Wednesday’s action with a 7.01 ERA in 17 starts and 86 innings of work. That ERA is as bad as it sounds. It ranked dead last among the 93 pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched this season, and by a wide margin. After Wednesday’s implosion, Alcantara now has a 7.22 ERA in 18 starts. Yes, somehow, his ERA got worse.
Don’t mean to rub salt in the wound, but some more context on Sandy Alcantara
76 pitchers have thrown at least 90 innings this season. Alcantara’s 7.22 ERA is the worst of the bunch, more than half a run lower than the next-worst pitcher, Antonio Senzatela (6.60)
— Louis Addeo-Weiss (@addeo_louis00) July 10, 2025
He’s been healthy, but what else is there that’s positive to say about his performance for this season? His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is way up, and his ground ball rate has plummeted. Alcantara was never a big strikeout pitcher, but he always had elite command and generated tons of batted balls on the ground. He’s been all over the place this season, and has not looked good in any way.
To put it simply, the Cubs must aim higher than arguably the worst starting pitcher in the game right now. I think that goes without saying at this point.
Sandy Alcantara is proving his previous hot streak had little to do with him
Cubs fans really bought into the idea of trading for Alcantara in early June when he put together four straight solid outings. It appeared as if he might’ve put his early-season struggles behind him when he posted a 2.74 ERA in those four starts. Unfortunately, the fact that he’s now allowed 18 runs in 17 innings pitched across his three starts since proves that he hasn’t put his slow start behind him. If anything, his hot streak had a lot to do with the quality of competition he was facing.
Alcantara’s four good outings came against the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves. Three of those four lineups Alcantara faced rank in the bottom seven of the majors in runs scored, so they leave a lot to be desired. The Phillies are the only exception to that. While allowing two runs in five innings against a division-leader might sound impressive, the Phillies did not have Bryce Harper or J.T. Realmuto in their lineup that day, and they were tied for 22nd in the majors in runs scored in June. Their offense was struggling and was without its best performer when Alcantara faced them. That’s important context to note.
After the light stretch of competition, Alcantara has faced three top-11 offenses based on runs scored in his last three outings. The result has been the right-hander allowing more runs than innings pitched. Overall, Alcaantara entered the day with an 8.85 ERA in nine starts against teams at or above the .500 mark. That number will only increase after Wednesday’s rough outing against the Reds. Is that what Cubs fans want to see in the postseason? It shouldn’t be.
Cubs can ill afford to bank on a Sandy Alcantara bounce-back
Cubs fans are intrigued by the idea of trading for Alcantara, even while he’s struggling, thinking he might revert to his old form. There are reasons for Cubs fans to think this way, as he has an outstanding track record, and while his advanced metrics are bad, they aren’t 7.22 ERA bad. Still, while he might eventually find the range again, the Cubs shouldn’t be the team to bank on a bounce-back.
The Cubs should be in win-now mode. They should be doing whatever they can to win it all in 2025. Alcantara might improve after a full offseason, but what are the odds he’ll magically flip a switch down the stretch?
The 2025 season is the only one in which the Cubs are guaranteed to have Kyle Tucker on their team. They must maximize that opportunity they’re given by acquiring talent that can produce at an elite level immediately. Alcantara, very clearly, is not that.
It’d be fun for the Cubs to add a former Cy Young winner, and there’s always the chance he’ll get back to that form, but he isn’t pitching like a guy primed to bounce back anytime soon, and this team is ready to win now. Acquiring pitchers who are producing now and are not among the worst in the game should be targeted by the Cubs at the end of the month.
