If the Pittsburgh Pirates trade Mitch Keller, the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are among the favorites to land him. Keller has been incredible of late, and would thrive on the north side of Chicago near the top of their rotation, behind perhaps only Shota Imanaga. Thanks to Justin Steele’s injury, the Cubs starting pitching is an obvious flaw standing in their way of a World Series run in what might be Kyle Tucker’s only season on the north side.
Keller has a few years left under contract – he won’t be a free agent until after the 2028 season – and he is pitching at an ace level these days. If the Pirates traded him now, or if Keller can continue to pitch this well for the rest of July, they will receive a large amount of prospect capital for him. What does that look like for the Cubs? Thankfully, we have a real life example.
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Jose Berrios trade gives Cubs fans a deadline hint
The fine folks over at Rising Apple did this same exercise with a Mets trade for Keller. Per Noah Wright, Keller’s profile is similar to that of Jose Berrios, who was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays back in 2021. The Jays had to trade two top-50 prospects in return for Berrios, who had several years left in his contract. Will the Cubs suffer the same fate?
For example, Wright pitched a trade that would send Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat to the Pirates for Keller. Williams is a top-50 overall prospect in baseball, while Sproat is an MLB-ready starter who is pitching for the Mets Triple-A team. If that price seems steep, then you haven’t watched Keller pitch recently.
What would the Cubs have to trade away to land Mitch Keller?
| Chicago Cubs acquire: | Pittsburgh Pirates acquire |
|---|---|
| RHP Mitch Keller | OF Owen Caissie, SS/2B Cristian Hernandez |
For a team like the Cubs, their best bet would be to send outfielder Owen Caissie, who is the No. 43 prospect in all of baseball and Chicago’s top-rated prospect. He’s also performed quite well of late, and has a .963 OPS and Triple-A Iowa. Here is what MLB Pipeline had to say about Caissie’s performance:
“Caissie has had no difficulty producing against much older competition, creating huge raw power with the bat speed and loft in his left-handed swing and the still-growing strength and leverage in his 6-foot-3 frame. He could provide 30 or more homers per season, with his pop playing from left-center to the right-field line and against both lefties and righties.”
Caissie also has ‘deceptive speed’ and should not be doubted as a defensive player. Most importantly, the Pirates are lacking position-player talent in their farm system. The entire purpose of trading a player like Keller, who is on a team-friendly deal for the foreseeable future, would be to bulk up their system.
Given the Pirates are stacked in the starting pitching department, trading Keller wouldn’t hurt their rotation outlook all that much. The Cubs could trade, say, Caissie and SS/2B Cristian Hernandez, who is just 21 years old and a speedster on the basepaths, and likely acquire Keller.
Hernandez is a top-10 prospect in the Cubs system as well. It’d be one heck of a haul for the Pirates, who want to build around Paul Skenes long term.
