Rutschman isn’t scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2028 season
Although June was much kinder to them, the Baltimore Orioles still stand (crawl?) as one of the most disappointing teams of the 2025 Major League Baseball season to date.
Coming off back-to-back playoff appearances in 2023 and 2024 and still blessed with an enviable core of young hitters, the O’s in 2025 were expected to contend for the American League East title, even with a poor effort level from ownership and the front office when it comes to addressing the rotation.
With more than half the schedule behind them, however, the O’s find themselves in last place and on pace for 90 losses.
There are many culprits for what’s happened in Baltimore thus far, and their current straits raise the possibility that the Orioles will undertake some level of sell-off leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. More specifically, it’s not hard to find informed speculation that the O’s may entertain offers for stalwart catcher Adley Rutschman.
It’s a jarring thought, to be sure. Rutschman in many ways has been the face of both the O’s deep teardown as the No. 1 overall pick in 2019 and its resurgence as a Rookie of the Year runner-up and a two-time All-Star.
However, he’s also already 27 years of age and chipping away at his remaining years of team control.
The safe expectation is that Baltimore won’t move Rutschman at the deadline — a trade this offseason seems more likely, if he’s indeed going to be moved. However, the possibility that Rutschman will be with a new team before July is up is just that, a possibility. First, of course, he’ll need to return from the oblique strain that’s sidelined him since June 19, and the current expectation is that he’ll be activated soon after the upcoming All-Star break.
As such, all of this merits further exploration. Let’s undertake that exploration now by looking at both sides of the issue from the Baltimore standpoint.
The case for trading Rutschman
He has multiple years of control remaining:
While contenders are sometimes loath to take on a new starting catcher in the middle of a season (familiarity and rapport with the pitching staff is a job requirement), Rutchsman wouldn’t be a temporary fix.
He entered the 2025 season with exactly three years of MLB service time. He’s into his arbitration years, which means he’ll be paid more in line with his actual value soon, but he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2027 campaign.
In other words, any team that acquires Rutschman is not only getting him for the 2025 stretch drive and possibly playoffs but also two full seasons after that.
Players who have flashed star potential and have that much team control remaining can exact a high price in trade.
Samuel Basallo’s bat is ready (and then some):
The Orioles, as it turns out, have a big-time bat ready to plug in should Rutschman be dealt before the deadline. That’s Samuel Basallo, one of the top overall prospects in the game today.
CBS Sports ranked Basallo as the No. 9 overall prospect in baseball at midseason, crediting him as a “big, strong left-handed hitter” with an impressive average exit velocity. At present, the 20-year-old Basallo has an OPS of .920 with 16 home runs in 57 games at Triple-A Norfolk.
That’s elite production for anyone, let alone a catcher who’s roughly six and a half years younger than his average Triple-A peer. In terms of hitting, Basallo absolutely looks ready for the highest level right now.
This trade deadline may be light on star power:
When it comes to big names dealt before July ends, this year’s crop may not be a healthy one.
That’s especially the case on the hitter side. There’s a resurgent Eugenio Suárez as one possibility, but it’s far from certain that the Diamondbacks will sell. Ryan McMahon?
Decline-phase Nolan Arenado? Again, it’s not exactly inspiring stuff, and one could argue that Rutschman could be the biggest name on the market among hitters even after you consider his disappointing offensive numbers (more on that below). That kind of seller’s leverage might appeal to Baltimore.
The case against trading Rutschman
Rutschman’s on-field value is at an all-time low:
As just noted, Rutschman isn’t hitting in line with norms or expectations this season. Right now, he’s slashing .227/.319/.372 (98 OPS+) with eight home runs in 68 games. Really, though, this is a pattern of decline that’s been in place since his standout rookie campaign.
For his MLB career to date, Rutschman’s OPS+ has gone from 131 in 2022 to 128 in 2023 to 106 last season to, as noted, 98 in 2025.
Really, he hasn’t been the same at the plate since taking a foul tip off his right hand a bit more than a year ago. Suffice it to say, that’s not the trajectory you want. At the same time, Rutschman’s defensive value, while still solid, has cratered since his first two seasons in the majors, at least according to Statcast estimations.
One could easily argue that trading Rutschman now would amount to “selling low” for the Orioles. To be fair, Rutschman’s xWOBA (what’s this?) suggests he’s been quite unlucky at the plate in 2025 — one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this season — but his current injury means there’s not much time for him to find something closer to his deserved level of production before the deadline.
Interested parties, though, could see Rutschman’s underlying quality of contact as grounds for optimism — as well as a sign that he’s recovered from that possible hand injury from last season — and motivation to pursue him.
Basallo’s glove may not be ready:
As big-league-ready as Basallo’s bat looks, his glove is another matter. He does have a strong arm, and he moves a bit better than you’d think given that he’s 6–feet-4.
However, his framing and blocking need work to the extent that you occasionally hear rumblings that Basallo will need to be moved to first base at some point.
Are the O’s comfortable giving him the keys to the pitching staff at age 20 and with those shortcomings still in place? That’s an open question. It’s also worth noting that, at this writing, another Orioles catcher, Maverick Handley, is out with a concussion and doesn’t yet have a timetable for his return, Gary Sánchez is on the IL with a knee sprain and Chadwick Tromp has been waylaid by a back strain. Depth at the position is a concern right now.
The AL wild-card race figures to be an inviting one:
Yes, the O’s at present are solidly below .500 and occupying the basement of the AL East. Still, the American League is the weaker of the two leagues in 2025, and as such the AL wild-card race presents a low bar for relevance and even contention.
Speaking of which, the Orioles right now — struggles heretofore and all — are 7 ½ games out of the final AL wild-card spot.
That’s a sizable deficit, yes, and they’re behind seven teams in that queue. Still, the O’s in recent weeks have looked more like the team we expected them to be, and a number of those teams ahead of them may be selling and thus making themselves worse.
Throw in that possible rebound at the plate for Rutschman, and you can argue that the Orioles might be positioned to matter down the stretch and maybe even salvage their season. That would be much less likely, of course, if they undertake a deep deadline sell-off.
