2024 Red Sox In Review: Ceddanne Rafaela Showed Flashes

2024 In One Sentence

Amidst some growing pains at the plate, Ceddanne Rafaela stepped up for numerous clutch hits while showcasing his defensive versatility.

The Positives

2024 Red Sox In Review: Ceddanne Rafaela Showed Flashes

The Fangraphs rankings and write-up upon prospect graduation was nearly perfect for Ceddanne Rafaela. The 70, and even future 80, rankings are few and far between and they were the allure of Rafaela in the minor leagues. We saw grainy twitter videos of fantastic catches that he made which gave us hope for the next Coco Crisp (glove version) or Jackie Bradley (glove and arm version) patrolling the outfield at Fenway Park for years to come.

However, once Trevor Story suffered an injury in the opening week which would keep him out for most of the season, Rafaela needed to use another weapon in his arsenal: defensive versatility. When all was said and done, Rafaela started 72 games in center field, 71 at shortstop, and 4 at second base in 2024, while also making a few late-game appearances at third base. He played 647 innings at shortstop, slightly more than the 631 he played in center field. Statcast put Rafaela at a negative-7 for Outs Above Average, but Rafaela held his own at short, playing much of the season at his non-primary position as a rookie, making clear improvements as the season went on.

In center field, Rafaela was terrific, showing his instincts with a great first step off the bat, night after night. He ranked in the top 25% for Outs Above Average (+5) among outfielders. By the Defensive Runs Saved metric (+12), only Jarren Duran and Daulton Varsho ranked higher as center fielders. And let’s face it, it’s more fun when you’ve got a center fielder who can make plays like this:

Rafaela got robbed by not being a Gold Glove finalist at the “Utility” position. I’m not sure how the voters are defining “Utility” this season but he was that. I expect much of this had to do with Rafaela being a rookie, and that he’ll win several in the outfield in future years. Congratulations to Dylan Moore of the Mariners who played five positions in a mediocre fashion this season.

On the bases, Rafaela’s 70-grade speed was good for an 87^th percentile sprint speed and 19 stolen bases, albeit while being caught 10 times. Though Rafaela wasn’t on base much this year, he made the big hits count. He had 75 RBI and most of his damage came at the end of the order. In 426 plate appearances hitting 9^th, Rafaela slashed .253/.275/.411 with 13 HR and 61 RBI. He had numerous big hits late in games with runners on base, not letting the moment get to him.

The Negatives

As the Fangraphs write-up also said, “his offensive production is hurt by his reckless approach”.

What if I told you that Rafaela didn’t take a walk for the last 7 weeks of the season? Like, not once.

Although his .274 OBP was not the worst (Gelof .270), he did have the lowest walk rate in all of baseball at 2.6%. In fact, there were only three players in the MLB who had worse than a 1:5 BB:K ratio. With 15 walks and 151 strikeouts, Rafaela’s was worse than 1-to-10.

As the season went on, pitchers focused on breaking balls down and away and once Rafaela got behind in the count, it was basically all they threw.

Rafaela was one of five hitters in baseball with a 41% O-Swing or more on Fangraphs (their version of “Chase Rate”). His was nearly 50%. There’s probably someone on the Colorado Rockies SB Nation site writing the same article about Ezequiel Tovar as I am today.

Best Moment

On July 5th, when the Red Sox still maintained a Wild Card spot and were just four games in the loss column behind the Yankees, Rafaela stepped up in extra innings against Tommy Kahnle and delivered one of the clutch moments of the Red Sox season.

The Big Question

Can Rafaela lay off the breaking balls down and away?

That might seem specific but it will be the difference between whether he is a nine-inning a game player for the remainder of his contract, which runs through 2031 (8-years, $50M), with a team option for 2032. The scouts have known this for a long time but the level of success that Rafaela can reach in the Major Leagues on the offensive side will come down to his ability to lay off of pitches out of the strike zone. On the inner-half, Rafaela does damage:

But we can’t have this…

2025 And Beyond

Rafaela did all that the team asked of him in 2024, playing the most innings of the season at his secondary position, gathering 571 plate appearances as a rookie. The team has made a fairly strong investment in him by buying out his arbitration years and while this is a low-risk move because of the defense Rafaela almost-certainly will provide, it is the plate discipline that will need to improve to get him to the next level to become a 3-4 WAR player. With Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu already in town, and number one overall prospect Roman Anthony knocking down the door, it’s feasible that one of these players is traded in the next few months, Rafaela included. Assuming that he stays in Boston, we will at least be able to enjoy those 70-grade traits that Rafaela possesses.