Mike Elias’s Orioles find themselves in a vastly different position compared to where they were the last two years.

What was a flourishing young team in 2023 and ‘24 has been deflated by injuries, inconsistencies, failure to further improve the roster, and flat out underperformance from the guys they already had.

Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish have both been on the shelf for the entire season, Rodriguez with a lat strain and Bradish recovering from his June ‘24 Tommy John surgery.

Adley Rutschman had just begun to pick it up, slashing .309/.381/.509 through 55 June at bats before he was placed on the injured list. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg have both missed over half of the season on the IL.

Jackson Holliday, Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cowser, and Westburg, the five thought to be the core who would pave the way, have only appeared in the same lineup six times.

While health has been a factor, it doesn’t paint the whole picture. The Orioles somehow expected to improve from their 2024 record of 91-71 by signing, uh…. Tyler O’Neill and Charlie Morton…. as their two most expensive free agents.

Not to mention those guys were brought in to replace Anthony Santander, who had just slugged 44 home runs, and Corbin Burnes who posted a 2.92 ERA in 32 starts. Also not to mention that the Orioles failed massively to supplement their roster in both 2023 and 2024 at the deadline.

An imperfect storm has left the Orioles in a puzzling spot four weeks prior to MLB’s trade deadline. If Rutschman can return to recent form when healthy, and the rest of the key bats can stay on the field, it doesn’t seem like a longshot that they turn things around.

On the flip side, very few good things are going on in the present, and at this point it seems like the rest of the Orioles season comes down to too many “what-ifs.”

One way or another, a tough decision will be made.

Do you deal prospects to try and make a push or do you give up on a talented team with a third of the season still ahead?

The Case for Buying

After a slow start (in part due to yes, an injury) Henderson is in the middle of his best stretch this year. Over the last 30 days he’s slashing .316/.409/.474. Holliday is likely to be an all-star reserve. Ryan O’Hearn is the AL’s starting designated hitter in the All-Star Game.

Cowser and Westburg have both been big contributors since their returns from the IL, though Westy has been hobbled again over the last week. Without a doubt, this offense is capable of being one of the league’s best lineups. If they all get and stay healthy, a legit turnaround seems easier than you’d think.

Rodriguez and Bradish should both return in August. Assuming Zach Eflin is off the IL by then, a Bradish, Rodriguez, Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer rotation seems more than serviceable if Rogers and Kremer can maintain some sort of consistency.

Mike Elias loves those “trade deadline acquisitions” where guys are activated off the injured list in late July to Early August, but these could be two legit examples of impactful players coming back to action around the perfect time.

You can make the argument that acquiring a number two or three starter and a reliever or two will make a difference assuming the offense comes back to form, but once again this scenario is heavily “what-if” based.

The Case for Selling

The Orioles are 37-49 as I’m writing this.

Winning at a .667 pace over the last 76 games would lead to an 88-74 final record. In 2024 the final wild card team was the Detroit Tigers at 86-76. In 2023 it was the Toronto Blue Jays at 89-73. Is it really worth giving up farm capital to try and win two out of every three for the rest of the year to maybe get the third wild card spot?

The rotation in its current state is beat. Brandon Young has yet to go five innings in any of his four starts and he’s also allowed three or more earned runs in each of them.

Tomoyuki Sugano has a 9.50 ERA in his last four starts. Morton had his most recent start pushed due to elbow pain, which is never a good thing. Rogers and Kremer have been the two guys you can trust, but even then, can you trust them to stay consistent?

The decision of the front office may be made over the next 12-15 games. Going 8-4 would put you at 45-53, only 8 under .500. A 4-8 stretch would put them at 41-57, at which time the decision would become much easier.

At 41-57, it’s likely that we see most, if not all of the viable uncontrollable pieces go. Ramon Laureano has a club option at the end of the year, potentially raising his value. It would be smart to squeeze some value out of him and allow Heston Kjerstad to once again get everyday at bats. O’Hearn has been a gem of a find, but I would imagine they shop him.

Eflin is another pending free agent who could be dealt at the deadline. Though he’s hit some bumps recently, contenders realize that they can never have enough starting pitching.

I’d like to not hear the name “Felix Bautista” and “trade” in the same sentence during this cycle. He’s under team control through 2027 and if the Orioles do great things over the next three seasons he is likely to be a huge reason why.

At 45-53 I think you have to have to give your talent a chance. This lineup is easily capable of fueling a six, seven, eight-game winning streak and just one good stretch could easily get them back to .500 with time to spare. A rotation acquisition plus bullpen help could go a long way toward a turnaround if the Orioles decide to take that path.

Regardless of the upcoming stretch, there is one guy who I think is better off in another uniform come August 1. As much as it pains me to say this, the Orioles seem to be carrying dead weight in their former all-star center fielder Cedric Mullins.

Mullins has been linked to the Astros, who are “aggressively looking” for a left-handed bat, according to Bob Nightengale.

Ever since his fiery start in April, he has hit to a .169 batting average between May and June. It may be best, regardless of buy or sell status, to get value out of their struggling 30-year-old center fielder, who is in the final year of his deal. Logically, Cowser would be given the keys to center, with Laureano in left, allowing Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson a timeshare in right.

Keep a very, very close eye over the next two or three weeks on the Orioles’ performance; it will define the way the organization approaches the rest of the season.

Mike Elias has seemingly expressed a desire to buy, but continued underperformance might just force his hand.