The Boston Red Sox are in quite a predicament, and Jarren Duran seems to be the man in limbo.

Duran was the star of the show for the Red Sox in 2024. He made his first All-Star team, racked up nearly nine wins above replacement, and finished eighth in Most Valuable Player voting. But the reality now is that there’s a logjam in the outfield, and his age and contract status make him the most likely to be traded.

That’s a crazy statement to some degree, because Duran is under contract through 2028 and is still only 28 years old. But that makes him the senior member of a crowded, talented outfield alongside Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony.

So we could sit here all day and debate whether Duran should be traded, but the reality is that he might be. And that comes down to whether another team is willing to give the Red Sox the assets they think is worth the blowback of trading away another All-Star.

On Sunday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe attempted to identify one such team: the American League rival Houston Astros.

“You’d set a high bar on Jarren Duran. But if there’s no intent to sign him to an extension, trading him makes more sense than playing it out. The Astros need lefthanded hitting and Duran fits their lineup,” Abraham wrote.

“The Sox need to open up their outfield to get Roman Anthony regular playing time and July is the time to do it.”

This season, Duran has a .252/.309/.402 slash line, all of which have dropped off significantly from last year. His defense and baserunning have taken a step back as well. He’s still a very useful player, but it’s reasonable to wonder if 2024 was an anomaly in terms of sheer production.

Trading Duran might have been easier for the fan base to stomach when Rafael Devers was still on the team. But now that Devers is gone, moving Duran would mean the team is now without its top two offensive contributors from their .500 season in 2024.

It’s a lot to process. But ultimately, trades are about value, and a team like the Astros could tip the scales by offering the Red Sox the combination of future value they feel is too good to pass up.

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