If you want to know see how an NFL player completely erases the momentum they had from one season to the next, simply look at the heater Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson was on in 2023 compared to the cliff he fell off of in 2024.

Ferguson was a Pro Bowler in 2023 and one of the NFL’s hottest tight ends — after 2024 he’s basically an afterthought in the Cowboys’ offense and has fallen off the radars of most NFL fans.

Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport might be one of the few left who is still buying stock in Ferguson, putting him as the NFL’s top “Sleeper” tight end in 2025.

“(Ferguson) all but vanished last year — less than 500 receiving yards and (zero) touchdowns in an injury-marred third NFL season,” Davenport wrote on June 26. ” … There’s no question CeeDee Lamb is top dog in the Dallas passing attack — he was sixth in the NFL in targets last year after leading the league in 2023. Dallas also traded for wideout George Pickens in the offseason. But Ferguson topped 100 targets two years back, and it’s not that difficult to imagine him doing so again. Given all the questions at running back, the Cowboys could easily be among the NFL’s most pass-heavy teams in 2025.”

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Ferguson Playing for Big Money in 2025

Ferguson is playing this season in the final year of his 4-year, $4.36 million rookie contract and could be an unrestricted free agent in 2026.

There’s such a wild variance on where Ferguson’s next deal winds up that even Spotrac ventured a guess at what Ferguson’s market value might look like.

“We’ve seen (Ferguson) skyrocket from a small contributor in his rookie year to a Pro Bowler in his sophomore season,” Inside the Star’s Mark Heaney wrote on May 18. “Unfortunately, that success didn’t carry over to 2024, and it could be the reason Dallas lets him walk next offseason … We all know the Cowboys limit their spending, and it just seems like he’s on pace to be the odd man out when it’s time to talk dollars.”

If Ferguson struggles, like he did in 2024, he could probably still wind up with a 1-year, $10 million contract like what Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert will play on this season.

If Ferguson balls out, like he did in 2023, he could probably end up with a 4-year, $50 million contract like the one Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet signed in July 2023.

Ferguson, a fourth round pick (No. 129 overall) in the 2022 NFL draft, was one of the league’s breakout stars in 2023 with 71 receptions for 761 yards and 5 touchdowns. In 2024, he took a massive step back with 59 receptions for 494 yards and no touchdowns — he also missed 3 games due to injuries.

If Cowboys Want Value, Extend Ferguson Now

The smart thing for the Cowboys would to be to try and get Ferguson to agree to a contract extension now, when his value is low. Which almost guarantees the Cowboys won’t do it.

It would be worth the Cowboys kicking the tires with Ferguson and his representatives to see if he might agree to a 3-year contract extension worth between $25 to $30 million.

That deal might include around $15 million in guaranteed money that’s paid out by the end of Year 2 — giving the Cowboys an option to cut bait if Ferguson’s play continues to falter and giving Ferguson room to renegotiate if he plays well.