Kyle Tucker is very familiar with Daikin Park, but he’ll get a new perspective on Friday in the opposing team’s dugout. For the first time since being traded to the Chicago Cubs in December, Tucker returns to Houston, where he grew into one of MLB’s best hitters and won the 2022 World Series title.

The Astros host the Cubs at 7:10 p.m. CT on Friday, with Tucker manning right field and batting second against Houston’s starting pitcher Brandon Walter. Tucker has played a big role in the Cubs achieving a 48-33 record in the first half of the season, good for a three-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central. That should make for a competitive three-game series against the Astros, who have an identical record and a 6.5-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West.

It’s also a good time to revisit the blockbuster trade that sent Tucker to the north side.

Tucker came to Chicago with expectations to be a force in the middle of the order, and he’s lived up to the hype in many respects. Through his first 357 plate appearances with the Cubs, he’s 29th among qualified hitters in batting average (.287), fifth in on-base percentage (.395), 14th in slugging percentage (.527), seventh in OPS (.922), seventh in wRC+ (156), 21st in home runs (16), 26th in RBI (49), ninth in stolen bases (19) and seventh in wins above replacement (3.6).

Tucker’s presence as a three-time All-Star from 2022-24 also seems to have benefitted the rest of the Cubs’ lineup. Typically batting behind Tucker is Seiya Suzuki, who’s having the best season of his career with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs. Pete Crow-Armstrong is also having a breakout season, so much so that he’s joined the NL MVP conversation. Michael Busch has taken a significant step forward in his second full season in the major leagues, too.

In terms of immediate impact, trading for Tucker has been well worth it from the Cubs’ perspective. But what will really determine the winner of this trade is how the rest of the season plays out, and whether the Cubs can keep him for more than one season. The Cubs have the second best record in the NL and should look to make a few upgrades at the trade deadline in order to contend for a World Series title and make the most out of Tucker’s potentially only season in Chicago.

Tucker will be an unrestricted free agent after the season, unless the Cubs provide an offer he can’t turn down. It would make sense for Tucker to go to free agency in the offseason, when he can hear the best offers out there from the other 29 teams in the league. Cubs president of baseball operations has kept those discussions private, other than saying he’d love to have a player of Tucker’s caliber on the roster moving forward.

If the Cubs are unable to sign him to a long-term contract, they’d be giving up three players for one season of Tucker’s services. Unless they were to win a World Series with Tucker before he walks, the trade would likely look far worse from the Cubs’ standpoint.

The Cubs gave up Isaac Paredes, a 2024 All-Star who’s currently fourth among MLB third basemen with 2.5 wins above replacement. He also hit a career-high 30 home runs in 2023, and is on pace for a third straight season with 80-plus RBIs. Through 77 games this season, Paredes is slashing .251/.357/.463/.820 with 16 home runs and 46 RBIs.

Chicago also dealt way Cam Smith, the 14th overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, who was ranked No. 73 in the MLB Pipeline prospect rankings at the time of the trade. Smith was originally thought to be a third baseman, like Paredes. And with the Cubs’ top prospect being third baseman Matt Shaw, the trade made sense for the Cubs from a positional standpoint.

But Smith has since moved to right field, where he has played 67 games in his rookie season. Given he was drafted just last June, it was a bit of a surprise that he made the Astros’ Opening Day roster. Through his first 254 plate appearances in the major leagues, he’s slashing .271/.343/.402/.744 with five home runs, 28 RBIs, four stolen bases, 21 walks and 68 strikeouts.

The final piece of the trade was Hayden Wesneski, a right-hander who posted a 3.90 ERA across 190 innings as a starter and a reliever with the Cubs from 2022-24. He gave up 16 earned runs in 32 innings with the Astros before suffering an injury in May that required season-ending Tommy John surgery.

It’s too early to definitively say who won this trade, given Tucker’s contract status and half of the 2025 season still to be played. The Astros likely had a sense that they wouldn’t be able to sign Tucker to a long-term contract – or that they didn’t want to, but why would that be the case? Getting three quality players in return was a solid alternative, especially considering they’re leading the division withouht him. Though having Tucker would certainly help their chances of winning another World Series this year.

The Cubs should be thrilled to have an MVP-caliber slugger in their lineup this season, and the cost wasn’t too high, despite Paredes and Smith having solid seasons. But if Tucker signs with another team in the offseason, whether the trade was worth it will be debated for years to come.