When the Kansas City Chiefs selected Utah State wide receiver Jalen Royals with the 133rd pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, I was thrilled. Outside of their first round selection of tackle Joshua Simmons, Royals was my favorite pick of KC’s draft class. I liked his college tape, I thought he was a great bargain where KC got him, and I thought he filled a need for another wideout with the size to play on the outside. However, I know fans (myself included) can sometimes be overly optimistic about players, especially draft picks.
Knowing that, I set out this month to look at the hit rates of players at the positions that the Chiefs drafted in the same range that KC drafted them. I wanted to give readers (and myself) a realistic look at what recent history says the odds are of each of KC’s picks living up to fans positive expectations. So far I have looked at each of KC’s first four picks and you can check out those results at the links below if you haven’t had a chance to yet.
Joshua Simmons / late first round offensive tackles
Omarr Norman-Lott / 2nd round defensive tackles
Ashton Gillotte / early 3rd round defensive ends
Nohl Williams / late 3rd round cornerbacks
To find out the recent hit rate of wide receivers taken around where Royals went I looked at the ten draft classes from 2014-2023. I felt that it was too soon to make any judgements on the 2024 class, so that gave me the most recent ten year sample I could reliably work with. Then I looked at any wide receivers taken in those drafts between picks 118-148. That gave me a 31 pick window that included the 15 picks before and after where Royals was taken.
Using those parameters I found 31 wide receivers taken over that ten year period in that pick range. Those 31 wideouts are listed below:
2014:
Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers – pick 118
Kevin Norwood – Seattle Seahawks – pick 123
Ryan Grant – Washington Commanders – pick 142
Devin Street – Dallas Cowboys – pick 146
2015:
Vince Mayle – Cleveland Browns – pick 123
DeAndre Smelter – San Francisco 49ers – pick 132
Rashad Greene – Jacksonville Jaguars – pick 139
Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings – pick 146
2016:
Demarcus Robinson – Kansas City Chiefs – pick 126
Tajae Sharpe – Tennessee Titans – pick 140
2017:
Mack Hollins – Philadelphia Eagles – pick 118
Josh Malone – Cincinnati Bengals – pick 128
Ryan Switzer – Dallas Cowboys – pick 133
Jehu Chesson – Kansas City Chiefs – pick 139
Chad Hanson – New York Jets – pick 141
2018:
Jaleel Scott – Baltimore Ravens – pick 132
J’Mon Moore – Green Bay Packers – pick 133
Justin Watson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – pick 144
2019:
Gary Jennings Jr. – Seattle Seahawks – pick 120
Riley Ridley – Chicago Bears – pick 126
2020:
Gabriel Davis – Buffalo Bills – pick 128
Antonio Gandy-Golden – Washington Commanders – pick 142
2021:
Jaelon Darden – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – pick 129
Tylan Wallace – Baltimore Ravens – pick 131
2022:
Erik Ezukanma – Miami Dolphins – pick 125
Romeo Doubs – Green Bay Packers – pick 132
Calvin Austin – Pittsburgh Steelers – pick 138
Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Bills – pick 148
2023:
Derius Davis – Los Angeles Chargers – pick 125
Charlie Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – pick 131
Tyler Scott – Chicago Bears – pick 133
After identifying those 31 wideouts I went through their career numbers and looked at which players had been “misses”, which ones carved out roles as “NFL contributors”, and which ones had become regular “NFL starters”. Some of those are subjective judgement calls between two of the categories and a few of the more recent picks could still move up or down a category depending on how they do from here out, but this is what I came up with.
Misses (61.3%):
Kevin Norwood
Devin Street
Vince Mayle
DeAndre Smelter
Rashad Greene
Tajae Sharpe
Josh Malone
Ryan Switzer
Jehu Chesson
Chad Hanson
Jaleel Scott
J’Mon Moore
Gary Jennings Jr.
Riley Ridley
Antonio Gandy-Golden
Jaelon Darden
Tylan Wallace
Erik Ezukanma
Tyler Scott
NFL Contributors (25.8%):
Martavis Bryant
Ryan Grant
Demarcus Robinson
Mack Hollins
Justin Watson
Calvin Austin
Derius Davis
Charlie Jones
NFL Starters (12.9%):
Stefon Diggs
Gabriel Davis
Romeo Doubs
Khalil Shakir
While I’m excited about Jalen Royals potential, this list of receivers drafted in the same range as him doesn’t exactly paint an overly optimistic picture. 61.3% of wideouts taken in this area just flat out miss. That makes sense considering the overall hit rate for all NFL 4th round picks is usually considered to be between 20-30% depending on what you use as qualifiers. What’s maybe an even bigger wake up call is that players like former Chiefs Demarcus Robinson and Justin Watson are considered “hits” compared to the majority of wideouts taken in this part of the draft.
While many fans are hoping Royals turns out to be another Rashee Rice after he earned positive reviews at OTAs, just being another Demarcus Robinson would be a top 20% outcome for Royals based on recent draft history. That having been said, there was one true elite wideout drafted in this range in Stefon Diggs, but he is certainly an extreme outlier. Even being a solid starting option like Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, or Gabriel Davis would be an odds defying win for Royals with where he was drafted.
I still like Jalen Royals potential and am excited to see what he can do in Kansas City. While the odds aren’t in his favor, I do think there is a chance he adds his name to the short list of productive wideouts drafted in this range. However, I would also point out that there were players on the “misses” list that I would have been just as excited about had the Chiefs drafted them in their drafts. Players like Antonio Gandy-Golden, Tylan Wallace, and Erik Ezukanma were all on my wish list for KC in their perspective classes. Only time will tell if Royals can overcome the odds and live up to the excitement that many Chiefs fans have for him right now.
