Miami Marlins v San Francisco Giants | Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/GettyImages

Justin Verlander remains winless through his first 12 starts with the SF Giants. For the most part, the fastball velocity has returned from an injury-plagued season in 2024, but the results have not been there, leading to the question about whether he has anything left in the tank.

In 2024, Verlander battled neck and shoulder discomfort. His four-seam fastball velocity dipped to 93.5 MPH, which was his lowest mark since 2015. That velocity has rebounded to 93.9 MPH this season.

The four-seamer is a pitch he often throws more than 50 percent of the time. For him to have success, that pitch needs to be effective. In recent years, it has been an effective offering. In 2022, opposing hitters tallied a .194 batting average against his four-seam fastball. That was the year when Verlander posted a 1.75 ERA in 28 outings while taking home his third AL Cy Young Award.

In a lot of ways, that was a resurgent campaign for the then-39-year-old pitcher, who had missed the previous season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He continued to get good results in 2023, as he tallied a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts.

Over the past two seasons, it has been a much different story. Verlander has pitched to a 5.09 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over his last 29 starts. The strikeout and walk rates are both trending in the wrong direction.

Command has typically been a strength of Verlander’s Hall of Fame career. That has not been the case in 2025, as he has a 90 Location+, which is a below-average mark. That would suggest a regression in command, but I would propose a different theory. At 42 years old, Verlander has to throw around the zone because his stuff does not play as effectively as it has in the past.

The right-handed hurler occasionally misses in the middle of the zone, but the opposing hitter does damage against it. The margin for error looks to be gone.

Verlander yielded three earned runs in five innings against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. That is not a bad outing, but he continued to miss in the middle of the zone, especially with the four-seamer. Major league hitters are too good to miss on that pitch location. Perhaps, a better lineup puts up more than three runs.

This is not to say that the loss was on Verlander. The Giants lineup has to push more than two runs across home plate.

This comes back to his four-seamer. It is a pitch he has thrown 49.4 percent of the time in 2025. Opposing hitters have registered a .273 batting average, .527 slugging percentage, and .378 wOBA against it. Those are pretty rough numbers, but the expected numbers are even worse, including a .601 expected slugging percentage.

The Giants have arguably been one of the biggest surprises of the year, with a 44-35 record. Following the trade for Rafael Devers, they pushed all their chips onto the table. This team plans to compete for a playoff spot this season, and they may even need to add another starter with Verlander struggling. The Giants hope he can turn it around, but after 12 starts, the results do not look promising.