The most polarizing player from Elias’ 2024 trade deadline looks set to come back to the majors. Can he build upon his last spot start and help rebuild Elias’ reputation?

With the recent announcement that Cade Povich is set to become the fifth Orioles starting pitcher to spend time on the IL in 2025, we have reached yet another crossroads for the Mike Elias regime. All indications are that the Orioles will recall polarizing pitcher Trevor Rogers to fill Povich’s spot in the rotation Wednesday in Tampa.

Rogers is a divisive figure in Birdland, both for his on-field performance and what it cost the Orioles to acquire him. One of two starting pitchers acquired at last year’s trade deadline, the southpaw only made four appearances for Baltimore in 2024.

In those four starts, Rogers posted a 7.11 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and .338 batting average against. That disappointing debut has meant he’s only made one start for the Orioles since, as he’s been in Norfolk trying to figure things out since last August.

In retrospect, the cost to acquire Rogers seems even more like an overpay now than it did 11 months ago. Elias sent infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers to Miami in the Rogers deal, both of whom have gone on to nail down starting roles on the floundering Florida franchise.

Stowers has been one of Miami’s best hitters this year, leading them with 33 RBIs and 10 HRs, while second on the team with a .807 OPS.

Norby has been less productive, posting 0.0 bWAR and a .645 OPS as the Fish’s mostly-everday third baseman.

The logic for acquiring Rogers last summer was simultaneously somewhat understandable and incredibly shaky. The Orioles, as an organization, prioritize acquiring pitchers whom they believe they can help get the best out of.

It’s the mindset that’s seen Elias acquire guys like Shintaro Fujinami, Jack Flaherty and (to a lesser extent) Zach Eflin. When viewed through the lens of buying low on a player with a potentially high ceiling, acquiring a former All-Star with 2+ years of team control made sense.

What made this line of thinking shaky was everything we’d seen from Rogers since his All-Star season in 2021. He struggled to a 5.47 ERA across 23 starts in 2022. He missed almost the entirety of the 2023 season with left bicep issues and last season had a 4.53 ERA in 21 starts for Miami before being traded to the Orioles.

On top of his disappointing counting stats, he’d seemingly lost the feel for his changeup—the pitch that propelled him to All-Star status as a rookie.

In 2021, Rogers’ changeup was the 7th best change in all of baseball, producing seven runs of Run Value and holding opponents to .199 average.

Since that magical 2021 season, Rogers’ cambio produced -12 runs of Run Value while opponents hit .290 through the end of last season.

The suspect recent history and terrible start to his Orioles career were enough for most fans to give up on Rogers… until that one night in Boston. Doing his best Michael Corleone impression, Rogers delivered one of the best starts of his career last month against the Red Sox. Making a spot start in the second game of a doubleheader, Rogers tossed 6.1 scoreless innings, while only allowing two hits and punching out five.

That cameo vs. the Red Sox gave us all a glimpse of what Rogers can be at his best. He consistently located his fastball at the top of the zone while peppering the bottom with his changeup, slider and sweeper.

He was getting swings and misses on all of his offerings, with four whiffs on his fastball and four whiffs on his secondary pitches. We also saw added velocity from Rogers, with his four-seamer averaging 93.3mph (up from 91.9mph in 2024) and topping out at 96mph.

Povich will be on the IL until at least the end of June, and may be longer if he needs a rehab stint in Norfolk. That means Rogers will have an extended audition to prove he can stick in this rotation—for 2025 and beyond.

The timing could ultimately prove advantageous for Rogers too. The Rays rank 20th in batting average against lefties, and George M. Steinbrenner field only plays as a tough park for LHPs due to its high home run rate.

Rogers has a career HR/9 of 0.9 (league average is 1.1), meaning he should have a favorable matchup to try and replicate his success from Fenway Park.

If the rotation holds, he’ll get to skip this weekend’s series against the Yankees and instead make his second start against the Rangers in Baltimore. While Camden Yards hasn’t exactly been kind of LHPs since the changes to the Great Wall of Baltimore, the Rangers are one of baseball’s worst teams at handling southpaws.

They rank 25th in batting average against LHPs and 26th in slugging.

The next two trips through the rotation would see Rogers get a rematch vs. Tampa before taking on Atlanta—another team in the bottom third of the league against LHPs.

This opportunity will prove to be a turning point for both Rogers and Elias as they try to keep their jobs in Baltimore. Of the Orioles’ healthy starters, only Rogers and Dean Kremer are under team control for the 2026 season.

If Rogers can vindicate himself by stringing together several quality starts, he can not only earn a role in 2025 but pencil himself into the rotation for the start of next year.

However, if he can’t continue to grow on the improvements he’s made in Norfolk, Rogers may play both him and Elias out of Baltimore. The lefty has been up and down in Triple-A this season, posting a 10.57 ERA over his first three starts for Norfolk before settling down into a 3.16 ERA in his six starts since. He’ll need to do a better job at limiting base runners in the bigs as well, with Triple-A opponents hitting .304 off Rogers and his 1.55 WHIP.

If the Orioles’ southpaw is similarly inconsistent in Baltimore, it’ll be another strike against him and another failed move on Elias’ record. A Rogers implosion might also force Elias & Co. to be overly aggressive in the starting pitching market this July. If the next wave of reinforcements doesn’t immediately pay dividends, Elias may be paying with his job come the winter.

And so Elias, the Orioles and all of Birdland will hope the next chapter of the Trevor Rogers saga is the best we’ve ever seen.