The Atlanta Braves continue to take one step forward and two steps back. Just when you think their injury luck can’t get worse, it does. Like clockwork.
The latest victim of a ravenous injury bug is A.J. Smith-Shawver, who had his breakout campaign cut short by a torn UCL, which will require either Tommy John surgery or an internal brace procedure. Either would keep him out a long while.
That leaves the Braves with four healthy big-league starters, one of them being Spencer Strider, who hasn’t strung together more than a couple starts in more than a year. With top prospect Hurston Waldrep stalling in Triple-A, the internal options are running thin for Atlanta.
We can safely expect Alex Anthopoulos to explore the trade market in the coming weeks, but the Braves aren’t likely to land an ace. What the Braves need, truly, is depth. That also means not trading what little depth exists on the roster.
FanSided’s own Eric Cole wrote about why Bryce Elder is on the trade block over at House That Hank Built.
“Assuming Elder can look reasonable down at Triple-A, the Braves should at least listen to offers on Elder,” he writes. “With Atlanta’s rotation looking to be in reasonably good shape assuming Spencer Strider stays healthy, moving Elder who isn’t even arbitration-eligible yet could yield a better return than many fans think.”
While it’s a reasonable pitch — Elder is a middling starter at best and his value probably won’t increase from here — I’d suggest that Atlanta should, at all costs, preserve what little pitching depth it currently has.
Braves can’t really afford to trade Bryce Elder until there’s a better starter coming back
The Smith-Shawver injury obviously impacts things a great deal, and right now, Elder feels practically invaluable to the Braves’ rotation.
He’s still in Triple-A right now, but it’s reasonable to think Elder gets the first call-up to replace Atlanta’s injured ace.
Moreover, Elder’s friendly contract situation — he doesn’t even begin arbitration until 2027 — only strengthens the case against trading him. While Atlanta can probably get some value back, no team is taking Elder straight up for a proven, postseason-level arm. Nor will they break out blue chip prospects to acquire Atlanta’s 26-year-old.
Elder has been more or less fine this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through eight starts. But fine is something the Braves don’t have much of in the rotation right now. Even if Elder is nothing more than a spot No. 5 starter, Atlanta needs that. Even if the Braves add another starter at the deadline, they’d be one injury away from catastrophe.
Elder gives them depth, whether it’s pinch-starting for AJSS in the short term or holding serve in Triple-A until he’s needed again.
While Elder’s 2023 All-Star berth reads more as a fluke than a sign of things to come, he’s a 26-year-old who has put solid appearances under his belt in the big leagues.
Even this season, while Elder can get into jams and pitch to hard contact a little too often, he gets a ton of groundballs and tends to work the zone effectively, seldom lapsing on the command front (84th percentile for groundball rate, 67th percentile for walks).
The Braves need to stock up a few more reliable arms before getting off of Elder.
He’s in a position to stick around the organization for years and supply valuable, break-in-case-of-emergency depth for the Braves. Right now is an emergency, so trading him should not be top of mind for Anthopoulos.
