What history of post-NFL Draft trades says about expectations for George Pickens in first season with Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers — two of the NFL’s most iconic franchises — completed a trade in May that sent wide receiver George Pickens and a sixth-round pick to Dallas in exchange for third- and fifth-round selections.

Trades to occur between after the draft and before August are not rare, but they are far less common than their midseason counterparts. Since 2010, there have been 41 trades during this stage of the league calendar (2.73 trades per year). The trades made this time of year are often negligible. In fact, 78.0% of the deals made during this time frame included a Day 3 selection as the primary compensation. Seven of the trades involved both teams swapping a player. Four of the trades, including Pickens, resulted in a top-100 overall draft pick being exchanged.

Among those 41 trades, below are arguably five of the most impactful moves based on production the following season (from earliest to most recent):

July 29, 2011 — Panthers acquire TE Greg Olsen from Bears for third-round pick

Olsen hauled in 548 receptions after the trade, including 45 catches for 540 yards and five touchdowns in 2011. He signed a new contract as part of the trade.

May 21, 2012 — Seahawks acquire TE Kellen Winslow from Buccaneers for seventh-round pick

Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two touchdowns in 2012, but his production fell off a cliff in the years to follow.

June 1, 2017 — Jets acquire LB Demario Davis from Browns for S Calvin Pryor

Davis recorded 135 tackles, five sacks and one fumble recovery in 2017, but flourished with the Saints and has since played seven additional seasons.

July 25, 2020 — Jets acquire S Bradley McDougald, two first-round picks, third-round pick from Seahawks for S Jamal Adams, fourth-round pick

Adams was impactful in his first two seasons with Seattle, though did not play a full season in four years. It is one of the worst trades in recent NFL history.

May 12, 2023 — Browns acquire EDGE Za’Darius Smith, sixth-round pick, seventh-round pick from Vikings in exchange for two fifth-round picks

Smith had 10.5 sacks in what amounted to 1.5 seasons with the franchise, but his pressure numbers were greater than the production opposite Myles Garrett.

Pickens to play well enough to be considered a trade success?

Pickens’ situation is most similar to the 2011 deal where the Panthers acquired Olsen from the Bears. The player was looking for a new contract — his second contract. Pickens, a second-round pick out of Georgia, is entering the final year of his rookie contract. For Dallas to give Pickens his next contract, it would require the Cowboys to make a financial commitment outside of their comfort zone.

Three days after giving Michael Gallup a contract extension worth $11.5 million average annual value in 2021, the Cowboys traded Amari Cooper and his $20 million average annual value deal. CeeDee Lamb was playing out a rookie contract that brought an average annual value of $3.5 million at the time. Lamb, alone, is now getting a contract worth $34 million average annual value. Pickens has a projected market value of $25.3 million average annual value, according to Spotrac.

Most trades involving Day 2 draft capital or better are completed with the intention of retaining that player beyond one season. Only four franchises — Cincinnati, Miami, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay — have made top-of-the-market financial commitments to more than one wide receiver now that San Francisco’s duo of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel has been broken up.

The other line of thinking is the Cowboys view the former Steelers playmaker as the missing piece to a Super Bowl run, which is ambitious.

Dallas has been seeking a viable second wide receiver to Lamb. In the three years since trading Cooper, Dallas WR2 has averaged 607.3 receiving yards. Pickens has never had less than 801 receiving yards during the same time period, but he was the primary target in Pittsburgh’s offense. His speed and downfield play-making ability will give coach Brian Schottenheimer, who will retain play-calling responsibilities despite taking on the role of head coach, the freedom to move Lamb around the formation to create mismatches. The 5-foot-9 Kavontae Turpin had previously been relied upon heavily in that role.

As of Monday morning, DraftKings has even odds (-110) on 900.5 receiving yards. It is difficult for two teammates to reach 900 receiving yards, so the Under may be the lean. Pickens has never had more than five touchdowns in a season, so Under 4.5 touchdowns (+110) has value to it. (New users can activate $300 in bonus bets upon winning your first $5 bet.)

CBS Sports Fantasy experts project 72 receptions for 1,064 yards and six touchdowns for Pickens in 2025.

Ranking NFL’s most vulnerable division winners for 2025, from sturdy Chiefs to streaky Rams Cody Benjamin

The Cowboys open the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles Thursday night, Sept. 4.

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