When it comes to playing for big money, there hasn’t been a player at his position with more on the line in recent memory than Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson in 2025.

There’s such a wild variance on where Ferguson’s next deal winds up that even Spotrac — the safest of safe places for wannabe NFL salary cap experts — hasn’t even ventured a guess at what Ferguson’s market value might look like.

Ferguson is playing this season in the final year of his 4-year, $4.36 million rookie contract and could be an unrestricted free agent in 2026.

“We’ve seen (Ferguson) skyrocket from a small contributor in his rookie year to a Pro Bowler in his sophomore season,” Inside the Star’s Mark Heaney wrote on May 18. “Unfortunately, that success didn’t carry over to 2024, and it could be the reason Dallas lets him walk next offseason … We all know the Cowboys limit their spending, and it just seems like he’s on pace to be the odd man out when it’s time to talk dollars.”

If Ferguson struggles, like he did in 2024, he could probably still wind up with a 1-year, $10 million contract like what Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert will play on this season. If Ferguson balls out, like he did in 2023, he could probably end up with a 4-year, $50 million contract like the one Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet signed in July 2023.

In another scenario, if Ferguson enters The Matrix and has a season for the ages — think 900 to 1,000 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns — he could start to sniff some pretty rare air. That kind of output could see him approach the 4-year, $76 million contract extension Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride signed in April 2025.

Whatever happens, it’s also a good guess that in almost every scenario the Cowboys and Ferguson move on from each other.

Ferguson, a fourth round pick (No. 129 overall) in the 2022 NFL draft, was one of the league’s breakout stars in 2023 with 71 receptions for 761 yards and 5 touchdowns. In 2024, he took a massive step back with 59 receptions for 494 yards and no touchdowns — he also missed 3 games due to injuries.

A top 5 OL, 4.2 speed at RB in Jaydon Blue, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens out wide that defenses have to focus on…

Cowboys’ Smartest Move: Extend Ferguson Now

The sad thing about all of this is the smartest move for the Cowboys would to be to try and get Ferguson to agree to a contract extension now, when his value is low. It’s sad because we know the Cowboys won’t do it.

At just 26 years old, the likelihood is Ferguson will get back to how well he played in 2023 sooner than later. It’s important to remember quarterback Dak Prescott was out for most of 2024, which had a big impact on Ferguson’s stats.

It would be worth the Cowboys kicking the tires with Ferguson and his representatives to see if he might agree to a 3-year contract extension worth between $25 to $30 million. That deal might include around $15 million in guaranteed money that’s paid out by the end of Year 2, to give the Cowboys an out.

Imagine what geniuses the Cowboys will look like if Ferguson makes another Pro Bowl in 2025 and he’s already signed a new deal?