Much has gone wrong for the Baltimore Orioles in 2025.
One of the most alarming situations surrounding the franchise is Adley Rutschman’s offensive regression. No one seems to have an answer to why the two-time All-Star is hitting at the rate of a replacement-level player.
Rutschman’s season-long slump is nearing rock-bottom status. The Orioles’ catcher is hitting .200 with a .300 on-base percentage through 40 games.
Things have only gotten worse as the season progresses. Rutschman has a .146 batting average in May and hasn’t recorded a hit in consecutive games this month.
Perhaps it’d be less of a concern if his power numbers were still there.
Rutschman won’t be one to lead the league in homers, but he’s well below his career averages in several slugging categories.
He’s on pace for 16 home runs and 16 doubles, below his 17 and 29 averages across his first three MLB seasons. His career slugging percentage before this season was .421. It sits at .329 this year.
The Orioles remain patient with Rutschman, but surely they’d love to know if this is a long-term concern or a blip on his otherwise impressive radar. The under-the-hood metrics suggest the 27-year-old will eventually break out of this funk.
Baseball Savant numbers favor a return to form for Adley Rutschman
Among the reasons why it’s so puzzling to see Rutschman’s numbers dropping are his Statcast statistics.
There’s still plenty of red on the page, a sign that Baltimore’s backstop isn’t necessarily doing something “wrong” at the plate.
Rutschman is striking balls better than he ever has, leading to a squared-up rate in the 97th percentile. His barrel rate is the highest of his young career, and his average exit velocity is up from last year.
Rutschman’s plate discipline hasn’t changed much.
His strikeout rate is down from last season, while his walk rate has increased nearly three percent. Teams aren’t pitching to him much differently either, and his whiff rates against fastballs and breaking balls have decreased.
What’s likely giving the Orioles hope is Rutschman’s expected slash line.
Baseball Savant states his expected batting average is .284, while his expected slugging percentage is .480. The latter represents a career-high for Rutschman.
Orioles’ contract extension plans for Adley Rutschman on hold?
Baltimore has been reluctant to hand out contract extensions since the Chris Davis debacle. With this young core approaching their primes, maybe it’s time for the Orioles to flip the switch and start locking in their franchise cornerstones.
Gunnar Henderson should be at the top of the priority list, but Rutschman was undoubtedly right behind him before this recent rough patch.
Baltimore’s brass probably hasn’t been swayed too far away from wanting to give Rutschman a hefty extension. The figures in that contract are surely being skewed, though, as his slump continues.
The No. 1 overall pick in 2019 is under team control through the 2027 season. There’s no rush for the O’s to sign anyone to a large extension right now, and maybe long-term plans have altered with the team’s performance this season.
Thoughts of Adley Rutschman no longer being the Orioles’ catcher are still ludicrous.
A betting man would probably be safe banking on Baltimore extending him at some point over the next two years. However, decisions would be much easier for the Orioles if Rutschman returned to All-Star form.
