Analyzing the Downfall

The root causes of the Orioles’ struggles appear multifaceted, involving both their pitching staff and their offense. A key factor has been the significant underperformance of the pitching rotation. A strong starting rotation is crucial in baseball, and Baltimore’s has not met that standard.

Given these performance metrics, it’s no surprise that Orioles betting odds have shifted dramatically compared to preseason expectations. Bettors and analysts alike have begun adjusting their outlooks as early-season inconsistencies mount.

Poor starter ERA is often correlated with losing seasons, a category the Orioles currently occupy. The offensive lineup, which was once a strength, has also gone quiet. This combination of a lackluster offense and beleaguered pitching staff has made competing at the highest level increasingly difficult.

As of early May, their offense ranked tied for 21st in OPS and 23rd in runs per game across the majors, a notable drop from their averages of 4.98 RPG in 2023 and 4.85 in 2024.

Specific Player Issues and Injuries

The struggles are also reflected in the performance of key players and a series of impactful injuries. Several expected stars on the position player side have not performed up to standard so far. Compounding the hitting woes, the team has faced significant injuries to their pitching staff. These issues have forced the team into a deep hole, making the path forward challenging even as injury clouds begin to clear for some players.

Key Position Player Struggles

Several core position players have faced difficulties this season. Gunnar Henderson has recorded just five RBIs through 27 games, while Adley Rutschman is hitting .211/.318/.351. Jordan Westburg, an All-Star last year, is also struggling with a .217/.265/.391 line and is currently on the injured list. Colton Cowser fractured his thumb after playing only two games.

Impact of Pitching Injuries

The pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries. Kyle Bradish, the team’s top starter in 2023, is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has been sidelined all season with an elbow issue. Zach Eflin, acquired last season, dealt with a lat strain before returning earlier this week. These injuries have necessitated the use of stopgap pitchers, some of whom have struggled significantly, such as Charlie Morton with a 9.76 ERA and Kyle Gibson with a 14.09 ERA in his early starts.

Glimmers of Hope and Recent Signs of Life

Despite their struggles, the Orioles have shown flashes of potential, including a recent series win over the Angels capped by a 7-3 victory. Eflin’s return from the IL provided a solid start, and several key hitters showed signs of life—though past rebounds followed by slumps urge caution.

Recent Series Victory

The series win in Anaheim against the Angels was a notable positive amidst the tough start. The 7-3 victory in the final game saw Eflin return with a decent outing and the offense capitalize on opportunities against the opposing bullpen. This marked a rare series victory for the team this year.

Pitching Returns and Performance

The return of Eflin from the injured list is a positive development for the pitching staff. While it’s too early to declare him “the” guy in the rotation, his initial outing avoided disaster. Other pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano have continued to perform well, and Dean Kremer is clawing his way back from earlier struggles. Having these pitchers perform well is seen as crucial for the team’s success.

Historical Context and Comparison

To understand the current situation, sources compared the 2025 Orioles to past teams that made the playoffs and had a top-ranked farm system the following season. Out of 25 such teams identified since 2000, the analysis found that these teams rarely performed poorly and often excelled.

They made the playoffs in 68% of the subsequent seasons studied, and 63% of them won at least 90 games. Given this history, it would be relatively unprecedented for the Orioles to collapse completely, considering their youth, recent success, and the perceived talent of their prospects.

The 2019 Tampa Bay Rays, who were also a young team coming off a rebuild with a highly-rated farm system, are considered the best direct comparison. Those Rays went on to make five consecutive playoff appearances.

Long-Term Contention Window

The potential for future success still exists, underpinned by the team’s young core who remain under team control for several years. Rutschman, for instance, is not eligible for free agency until after the 2027 season. However, sustaining contention will depend on internal development—particularly from emerging prospects and injured pitchers returning to form. The Orioles’ early success in their rebuild was fueled by hitting development, but now the spotlight shifts to pitching. Prospects like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott must make strides, and arms like Bradish and Rodriguez will need to return healthy and effective. The front office may also have to be more aggressive than in recent years, whether through trades or free-agent additions, to fully capitalize on this roster’s window.

A Crossroads That Demands Action

While 2025 has not unfolded as planned, the Orioles are not without hope. The combination of a talented core, a strong farm system, and lessons from past success gives them a roadmap forward—if they’re willing to act decisively. How they navigate the rest of this season will go a long way in determining whether this downturn is a temporary stumble or the beginning of a longer-term setback.