Despite failing to hit consistently at the Major League level in three seasons, the Atlanta Braves created a series of complex deals in order to trade for Jarred Kelenic that eventually cost the team over $20 million and had them end up with a prototypical four-A fourth outfielder.

The Jarred Kelenic trade was a bad idea from the start for the Braves

Following the 2021 season, Kelenic’s minor league manager predicted great things, but that hasn’t happened yet. Kelenic hits the ball hard and has a slightly above-average barrel rate, but he doesn’t make contact all that often. With Seattle, he struck out in 30.7% of his plate appearances and whiffed on offspeed and breaking pitches over 40% of the time.

In March/April of 2023, he batted .308/.366/.615/.982, but cooled off to .250/.304/.423/.727 in May and cratered so badly in June that he threw a tantrum, kicked a water cooler, and broke his foot. His season numbers look good, but after mid-May, he wasn’t.

The best deals are simple deals, and the Kelenic deal was neither

If the Braves had taken only Marco Gonzales’ underwater contract to get the young outfielder, the deal wouldn’t have looked so bad. But Alex Anthopoulos decided to take Evan White’s contract as well, and things got complicated quickly.

The only player the Braves wanted was Kelenic, so the club had to trade the others to clear roster space. If the club had released Gonzalez and White, it would have cost them an additional $4.7M in CBT payroll, which would have made the deal far worse.

The cost of the Kelenic experiment

Warning: math stuff ahead. (All dollar amounts are in millions of dollars.)

• December 3: The Braves acquire Kelenic, Marco Gonzales ($12.5), Evan White ($7), and cash ($2.25 for two years).
• December 5: The Braves send Gonzalez and cash ($9.25) to the Pirates.
• December 8: The Braves trade White ($7) and Tyler Thomas (MiLB) to the Angels for David Fletcher ($14 over two seasons: $6, $6.5, $1.5 buyout) and Max Stassi ($7).
• December 9: The Braves send Stassi and cash ($6.26) to the White Sox.

When the dust settled, the Braves were on the hook for most of the Gonzalez ($9.25) and Stassi ($6.26) contracts, and all of Fletcher’s contract in 2025 ($6) and 2026 ($8), a total of $21.51. Cash from Seattle ($2.25) offset part of that, leaving $19.26 in 2024 and $8 in AAV – including Fletcher’s buyout – due in 2026.

Braves’ beat-writer Mark Bowman consistently reports that the club spent $17M to acquire Kelenic. I’m sure he’s correct, but arriving at that number must involve some hair-splitting.

The Braves were CBT payor, for the second time, with a CBT $276.9 payroll, roughly $19.6 above the second CBT threshold of $257 and just below the so-called $277 Cohen tax level. The club paid $14 in CBT, most of that on the money spent to acquire Kelenic, but avoided a draft penalty.

The Kelenic trade is still impacting the Braves roster

Kelenic posted an 87 OPS+, 47 wRC+, and -0.5 rWAR (-0.04 fWAR) in 2024: if not for his defense, he’d have been at least -1.5 in either flavor of WAR. If the Braves hadn’t committed so much time, money, and effort into acquiring Kelenic, they’d have demoted him last year. He started this season slowly, posting a .531 OPS, 47 wRC+, and -0.5 rWAR (-0.4 fWAR) before being sent to Gwinnett.

His performance and the Braves’ lack of depth meant the club entered the offseason needing help in the bullpen, a starting pitcher, and a left fielder who could hit, but money for only one good one.

It was clear that the CBT was on their mind when they waited until the last minute to sign Jurickson Profar to get him as inexpensively as possible. His positive PED test saved the club half of his 2025 salary, and the team used part of that savings ($1.5) to sign Alex Verdugo.

Profar will return mid-season, but which Profar will the club get? Questions were asked about Profar’s ability to be productive long-term before he failed the test, and the history of older players returning from PED suspensions brings those questions into sharper focus.

That’s a Wrap

The Braves paid about $19.6 million for zero production from players on other teams or trying to become a knuckleball pitcher in the minors, and most of the $14 tax on that money in CBT penalties.

Kelenic may find the answer at Gwinnett, but his trajectory so far looks a lot like that of Cameron Maybin. Both were projected as stars of the future, called up early in their career. And struggled. Maybin quickly slipped into a fourth-outfielder role and never became a star. Kelenic may change course, but it would be hard to find anyone willing to bet on that now.