Breaking News: Three Potential Paths to Fix the Orioles’ Ghastly Pitching

The Orioles are a team of extremes. This was no more apparent than in this weekend’s three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds, where one day after being stifled by a crafty lefty (Andrew Abbott), they put a beating on one of the top RHPs in baseball (Hunter Greene). Then, after that latter convincing 9-5 win…well, we’ll get to that in a moment.

It should come as no surprise as the Orioles have had titanic success against RHP this year (pacing baseball with a 131 wRC+) while performing downright ghoulishly against southpaws (29th with a 55 wRC+).

That being said, I do see some natural regression towards the mean against lefties. Tyler O’Neill’s NEGATIVE 44 wRC+ against lefties won’t hold. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ramon Laureano and Jordan Westburg should all be closer to 110 wRC+ players against lefties than the below average performers they’ve been thus far.

This lineup currently sits 8^th overall in baseball in wRC+, and it should surprise no one if the Orioles are neck-in-neck with the Dodgers and Yankees all year for best offense in baseball.

The bullpen is fine.

The rotation…is not. This was no more clear than yesterday, in an event that some Orioles faithful are dubbing “Red Easter” (ok, no one’s calling it that) in which Cincinnati, led by a 6-for-7 performance by one-time Norfolk backup catcher Austin Wynns, absolutely blazed Charlie Morton and a potpourri of Orioles waiver wire claims, Cionel Perez, and bench position players for 24 runs.

YIKES. Somehow, the Orioles came into that game with a positive run differential. Needless to say, that is no longer the case.

If you squint, the Orioles rotation might have two credible back-end starters (Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer), and one #6-type (Brandon Young). Morton looks cooked. Cade Povich looks like AAA depth. Zach Eflin might be back in a turn or two. Who knows about Chace McDermott or Trevor Rogers, who both have major questions even if they are healthy?

So where do the Orioles turn to fill two rotation spots?

I have a few ideas. Let’s play GM.

Idea 1: Prospect Challenge Trade

Anyone remember the Jazz Chisholm-for-Zac Gallen trade that the Marlins and Diamondbacks swung a few years ago?

I have a new version of that trade.

Orioles trade

Coby Mayo

Twins trade

Zebby Matthews
The Twins are a relatively pitching-rich organization. David Festa and Matthews, who started the year in the Twins AAA rotation, would have been a nice 1-2 punch for the Orioles.

The Orioles love Mayo and have for a while. However, as long as Ryan Mountcastle is on this team, it’s become clear that the Orioles don’t have a spot for Coby on the big league roster, especially as the evidence mounts that Mayo is not an MLB-caliber 3B defender. With the Orioles seemingly uninterested in trying Mayo in the corner OF, his fate has become inextricably linked to Mountcastle.

I would suggest a Mountcastle-for-pitching trade instead, but I suspect Mounty would more likely get us someone like Chris Paddack than a potential impact guy like Matthews. I’d rather just roll with Povich over Paddack.

So let’s think about this a little further.

Pitching analyst extraordinaire Thomas Nestico absolutely adores Matthews. After a recent AAA start, Nestico published this graphic regarding Matthews on his page @TJstats:

Matthews is a control/command artist (plus-plus) who has seen a recent jump in stuff in 2025.

Matthews now sports a near-80 grade fastball that sits in the high-90s and multiple plus secondaries including a slider and change-up that he can command to both sides of the plate.

Somehow, the 7-15 Twins (yup O’s fans, it can get worse) have Matthews wasting pitches in AAA in favor of Morton-challenger-for-worst-pitcher in baseball Paddack.

Some fans have pushed the Mayo-for-Sandy Alcantara narrative, myself included. However, in Matthews the Orioles would net more years of control, a better health track record, and more promising current performance. Matthews is the epitome of stability, and the Orioles desperately need that in their rotation.

Idea 2: Aggressive Pitching Promotions

In a way, this has already begun. I noted on X a few weeks ago that the Orioles are allowing their pitching prospects to throw more pitches, much earlier in the season, than they did in previous years.

Now, with the promotion of 24-year-old A+ pitcher Braxton Bragg to AA after just three dominant starts (16.1, 0 ER, 18 Ks, 16 swstr%), we might be seeing a new kind of promotional aggression for the Orioles, perhaps somewhat due to pressing MLB need.

This can work. Last year, the Atlanta Braves promoted a 24-year-old pitcher at A+ to AA after just six starts. Following two dominant AA starts, that pitcher was then promoted to the major leagues. That pitcher was Spencer Schwellenbach, who many now consider a top-20 or so pitcher in baseball.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs was fairly high on Bragg in his recent list (16th ranked in the system). Of Bragg, Longenhagen writes:

Bragg’s low release height creates uphill angle on his 92-95 mph rise/run fastball, which allowed it to miss bats at a plus rate, as did his low-80s lateral-action slider. He can manipulate the shape of his breaker to be more like a cutter at times, and his command of it is plus. The sink on his changeup is analytically exciting, and if Bragg can more consistently get that pitch to finish below the zone rather than in it, it’s going to be a plus weapon.

So along with Bragg, who else is a candidate for aggressive promotion?

AAA: Cameron Weston & Kyle Brnovich

Our current AAA depth starters. Both are a little bit interesting: Brnovich is striking oodles of guys out and Weston has a deep arsenal of average-ish pitches, a little like a right-handed Povich. Neither has been particularly good at AAA, however, and it seems like a stretch to think they are going to suddenly be serviceable against much better competition at the big-league level.

AA: Levi Wells and Zach Fruit

These two have maybe the best stuff+ in the system. Wells has been dominant so far: 11.1 IP, 2 ER, 12 Ks, already at AA so could make the jump directly to the big leagues. However, he isn’t very built up, averaging about 60 pitches per outing. He has also been used more in a piggy-back role than as a starter. He’s kept the walks under control this year, but has struggled with control historically, which can be a real problem at the major league level. Fruit has been bad so far; however, we saw the premium stuff in spring. Hopefully he turns it around fast and makes himself an option.

A+: Michael Forret & Nestor German

These two are fairly young (Forret is 21, German is 23). Forret has been dominant all year, while German has two good starts, and one bad start. Both are getting whiffs, with 15 and 16 swstr% respectively. Forret has been especially dominant (14.2 IP, 1 ER, just 3 hits, 19 Ks). I just don’t know if these two are really polished enough to make a big league impact this year. But if Forret keeps it rolling and if German sees his velo and command tick up as the year goes on as in 2024, who knows?

Idea 3: Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures

Let’s get downright whacky.

Bear with me.

What do Michael King, Clay Holmes, Seth Lugo, and Garrett Crochet have in common?

That’s right, they were all bullpen arms with three or more pitches who transitioned seamlessly into starting roles.

That being said, the only of these pitchers who did this mid-season wasKing at the end of 2023. I went back and looked at his game-log leading up to that transition.

To me, it seems like a transitioning bullpen arm would need the following outings:

25 pitches (relief outing)

40 pitches (relief outing)

60 pitches (long relief outing or short start)

70-80 pitches (first full-ish start)

So, who is the best candidate in our bullpen to transition to the rotation, keeping in mind their 1) chance of success 2) value to the team out of the bullpen and 3) chance of actually being good?

You might say Keegan Akin. For me, he doesn’t surpass the Povich line (if the guy is unlikely to be better than Povich, don’t bother).

Hold on to your hats. Take a deep breath.

My proposal is that the Orioles give Bryan Baker a shot.

Most of you wanted to cast off Baker into oblivion after he allowed a couple wind-aided HRs this spring. What do we really have to lose?

Here is why I think Baker is our best bullpen candidate.

-3 plus pitches

-MPHs to spare on the fastball

-Playing on house cash (unlike bullpen guys we want to rely on long term like Felix Bautista or Yennier Cano)

Baker also seems like the kind of guy who is full of competitive fire and up for a new challenge. He’s been an absolute stalwart for us so far and has bailed out starters on numerous occasions.

Baker has already thrown 29 pitches in an outing this year. My order of operations for him would be this: 1) Open for Povich’s next start (2-3 IP, 35-45 pitches). 2) Give him a 60-pitch start with a long-relief arm on standby. 3) Let him bake!

Conclusion

Yes, the Orioles have had injuries, but so have other rotations. Look at the Mets who’ve lost most of their planned opening day rotation but have still performed at the top of the league.

The Orioles front office is highly disciplined, but sometimes that discipline presents more as risk-aversion or what fans might call “playing scared”.

Well, as a wise man once said, sometimes when you stare into a void the void begins to stare back into you. That is where the Orioles are, rotation-wise.

Let’s be aggressive in pulling this rotation up to a league-average level. I don’t think Kyle Gibson is going to save us, but if the Orioles play their cards right, our May rotation could look like: