The New York Yankees are coming off of a heart-breaking loss in Game 5 of the World Series where their own mistakes prevented them from sending this series back to Los Angeles. A 5-0 lead withered away in an inning of horrors, but the organization has to move on and set its sights on the 2025 season, where they’ll get a chance to take home a title once again. With some big-time pieces from the 2024 squad hitting free agency, the Yankees will need to make some expensive moves to compete at the top of the AL once again.
Hal Steinbrenner will have to be willing to invest heavily once more, and Brian Cashman will need to find ways to get value on the margins to build a star-studded but deep roster in 2025.
Juan Soto and the Yankees Form a Permanent (And Expensive) Union
There is no way for the New York Yankees to have a successful offseason without retaining Juan Soto, who proved himself to be the most impactful player on the 2024 team overall. His terrific regular season carried into October, where he delivered countless huge hits and helped spearhead their run to the World Series. If the Yankees want any chance of remaining the favorite to come out of the AL, they need to keep their star outfielder in pinstripes forever.
It’s not going to be easy to outbid the New York Mets, who are coming off of a surprise run to the NLCS, and other teams are expected to seriously bid for his services as well. My solution? Give the man what he wants. Soto wants to set records with this deal, and the Yankees should be more than willing to offer him the record-setting deal that gives him the largest present-day value contract in North American sports history.
Since 2020, Soto has been 2nd in fWAR (27.1) and third in wRC+ (164), and last year indicated that there could be more room for improvement. This is a once-in-a-generation talent, a rare combination of power and contact, and someone who should never play for another team if the Yankees have any understanding of how baseball and business work.
Juan Soto: 14 years, $700 million ($50 million AAV)
Finding the Next Luke Weaver in This Underrated Arm
Just like Luke Weaver, Michael Soroka is a former first-round pick who has become a failed starter after early success in his Major League career. Injuries and inconsistency have robbed Soroka of his ability to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter on a contender, and this year looked like it would be another miserable campaign for the once-promising right-hander.
Soroka washed up with the all-time horrendous Chicago White Sox and posted a 4.74 ERA and 4.95 FIP, so why am I suggesting that Brian Cashman should bring him in to improve a bullpen that could lose three key arms? The White Sox moved Soroka out of the rotation after a stinker against Cleveland, and out of the bullpen, he pitched to a 2.75 ERA and struck out 39% of batters faced.
Things only improved after Michael Soroka began throwing his slider more, and one of the catalysts for his shift from a groundball pitcher to a swing-and-miss arm is his four-seamer. It generates above-average vertical movement and became his primary fastball when he moved to the bullpen, generating a 25.9% Whiff Rate and harmless contact in the air.
Brian Cashman has shown that he will shop for lower-cost relievers, and when he does they usually yield more value than expected. Michael Soroka isn’t a reclamation project as much as he may just be a seriously underrated reliever who has had a ton of success in that role. The Yankees could use another right-hander with swing-and-miss stuff, and perhaps there’s some more velocity to be found in that 6’5 frame of his.
Michael Soroka: 2 years, $5 million ($2.5 million AAV, player option for year 2)
Acquiring the Perfect First Baseman On the Trade Market
After a poor start to his season, Yandy Diaz was able to correct things and finish his season with a 120 wRC+ and .341 OBP, remaining one of the better hitters at the first base position. While he’s a below-average defender, his excellent on-base skills and firmly above-average bat make up for it as he brings a steady presence at the top of the lineup. With Gleyber Torres hitting free agency, it’s unlikely that he will return in 2025, and this move would be an upgrade at the leadoff spot.
He’s entering his age-33 season next year and won’t turn 34 until July, and while age might be a concern here, the other options on the first base market largely consist of players either as old as or older than Diaz himself. Furthermore, the structure of his contract makes 2026 a club option, so if Yandy Diaz were to fall off of a cliff, the Yankees would be able to decline in and cut their losses moving forward.
Yandy Diaz also posted a 165 wRC+ against LHP last season and has a carer 150 wRC+ in those matchups, which should really help an offense that had some issues slugging against southpaws. As a team, the Yankees finished with a .387 SLG% against LHP, the 18th lowest mark in the league last year, and that’s something that has to change in 2025.
The Yankees showed serious interest in trading for Yandy Diaz at the trade deadline, and while the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a deal, I think it shows that the Rays like some of the names in New York’s farm system. In exchange for Diaz, the Yankees would send over these two prospects:
- Ben Rice
- Cam Schlittler
Don’t get me wrong; I love Ben Rice, which is exactly why he’s in this deal. You can’t get good players without trading someone that another team would have interest in, and the high exit velocities and excellent plate discipline would greatly appeal to the Rays. Rice clubbed 12 home runs with a 174 wRC+ in Triple-A last season, and at the Major League level he had above-average raw power with excellent swing decisions to go with it.
As for Cam Schlittler, the right-hander sits in the mid-90s with his unique cut fastball, throwing sweeping sliders and sharp curveballs to go with it. Across 23 starts, he posted a 3.36 ERA with a 29.8% K%, showing off excellent damage prevention while racking up tons of whiffs. His stuff grades out positively across the board, and the Yankees could leverage him as the kind of arm that the Rays would love to maximize in their excellent player development system.
Flipping Veteran Depth With Another Contender
Hoby Milner is set to be a free agent after the 2025 season, and while his 4.73 ERA looks unappealing, every underlying metric suggests this is a pitcher who underperformed in 2024. His barrel rate was just 2.7% while he struck out 23.9% of batters faced, as the side-winding left-hander kept the ball on the ground and attacked the zone consistently. He has four distinct pitches he can command reliably, and they all attack different parts of the zone.
His four-seamer and changeup help attack north-south against right-handed batters while the sinker-sweeper are more east-west which helps against left-handed batters. While he struggled to get lefties out, I think it’s more of an aberration than something that will bug him for the rest of his big-league career. The Yankees would get a left-handed bullpen arm by acquiring him, and in return, they would trade infielder Jon Berti and right-handed pitcher Yoendrys Gomez.
For Milwaukee, they get infield depth to help with the seemingly inevitable loss of Willy Adames, as they’ll likely shift Joey Ortiz over to shortstop. Berti had some injury issues last season that plagued him from start to finish, but his speed and defense would be valued in Milwaukee and he has the versatility to play every position in the infield. Add on Yoendrys Gomez, and the Brewers would get a cheap cost-controlled arm with some upside.
Across 21 starts, the 25-year-old struck out 27% of batters faced with a 3.67 ERA, and he saw an uptick in velocity once August rolled around. His four-seamer, sweeper, and changeup are appealing pitches that could help him transition from a five-and-fly starter to a reliable bullpen piece for years to come. The secret benefit for New York would be freeing up about $1 million in salary, which seems minor but definitely adds up when you get into their arbitration situation.
Clearing Up Payroll With Non-Tendering Contracts
Three players will be non-tendered with this blueprint, as Tim Mayza, JT Brubaker, and Scott Effross all find themselves hitting free agency. I think all three of those players could return on cheaper deals in 2024, but by freeing up roughly $7.1 million, the Yankees will be able to stay under the Steve Cohen tax for this offseason, which Hal Steinbrenner would probably prefer to do.
FanGraphs projects their current Luxury Tax salary at $244 million, and by adding ~$52.4 million to that sum, the Yankees would end up with a $296.4 million payroll, which keeps them under the fourth threshold and gives them wiggle room at the deadline. There are a couple of things the Yankees could do if they wanted to further reduce their payroll and potentially open up room for another addition, but they would be risky or unlikely at this point.
Jose Trevino is projected to make north of $3 million next season, and while Carlos Narvaez might be able to provide the 83 wRC+ that the former Platinum Glove winner had, he probably doesn’t bring the same defensive value. Given how injury-prone the catcher position is, paying $3 million for an above-average player at the position is far from the worst thing the Yankees could do, and either trading or non-tendering him would not bring the Yankees under another threshold.
READ: Yankees decline to give $21 million qualifying offer to key infielder
The Yankees could also consider restructuring Gerrit Cole’s contract and giving him a deal with more present-day value that’s spread over a five or six-year period instead. Perhaps a five-year $150 million deal would be the kind of contract Cole could agree to, as this would open up $6 million of Luxury Tax money and it would increase the total value of his contract.
We could also see the Yankees either trade or non-tender Trent Grisham, who is projected to make nearly $6 million in 2025. The Yankees did not use him much in 2024, but he has value as a centerfielder with a decent enough bat to hit in the bottom of the lineup and not be a complete disaster. Without a capable fourth outfielder on the 40-man roster, it would make little sense to cut someone making a small amount of money when his replacement would likely cost a similar amount.
Perhaps the Yankees could get creative here, but I think going down a Luxury Tax threshold is more than enough for Hal Steinbrenner, they can’t cut costs too much since their bench depth was already a problem in 2024. Now that the roster is complete, let’s take a look at the lineup, rotation, and bullpen for 2025.
Finalizing the New-And-Improved Yankees For 2025
Two rookies will win jobs in Spring Training and become starters for this team, with Jasson Dominguez manning left field and Caleb Durbin taking over at second base. Sometimes you have to take risks and I’d rather it be with a low-cost rookie who can easily be replaced or benched than with someone who will require a financial investment and limit the team’s ability to improve the roster elsewhere or make the top offer for Juan Soto.
Jasson Dominguez seems like the obvious choice in left field given his status as the team’s top prospect and how much they’ve raved about him publicly. Make sure that Trent Grisham learns left field though in case Dominguez either gets hurt or is miserable in 2025, as rookie production is incredibly volatile. He won’t wow you with his glove, but the Martian has an incredible combination of tools offensively and will have a normal offseason without rehab to improve.
I admit that Caleb Durbin is a much tougher sell, but I’m all in on the changes he’s made offensively to help him generate more game power. After returning from the IL in August, he hit seven home runs in 35 games at the Triple-A level and has added four more in 19 games at the Arizona Fall League. Add that up and you have 11 blasts in 54 games, which is a 30 HR pace over a 150-game sample size.
I don’t ever anticipate Durbin hitting 30 home runs, but his ability to pull the ball in the air consistently while remaining patient and avoiding strikeouts are definitely encouraging. Steamer projects him for a 10 HR pace over 150 games, which is a solid number for a rookie player. His excellent defensive abilities paired with his blistering speed should allow the 24-year-old utilityman to produce value outside of his bat as well, and he projects for a bottom-of-the-order role.
It’s a huge risk for a player who isn’t a top-100 prospect and has zero MLB experience to be the penciled-in starter at a position, but I think Oswaldo Cabrera is a capable enough backup for it to work. I’d love for Jon Berti to be a backup option here but DJ LeMahieu exists and the team probably isn’t cutting him, so he has to be accounted for on the 26-man roster.
As for what the lineup would look like, here’s what the 2025 Yankees would run out on Opening Day if fully healthy:
This lineup has its fair share of question marks with two rookies, a second-year player, and an aging DH who could fall off of a cliff in 2025. With that being said, I think there are enough talented players here to expect this lineup to finish in the top five in run scoring. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are the best hitters in the American League while Yandy Diaz could finish in the top 10 in OBP after a slow start in 2024.
What excites me the most is the speed; if you use Steamer600, which extrapolates Steamer’s projected production of these players over 600 plate appearances (450 for catchers), you can see that Chisholm-Dominguez-Volpe-Durbin would change the fabric of the Yankees’ running game. They project for 103 stolen bases according to that system, that alone would be more than the total amount of stolen bases the Yankees had as a team from 2015-2024.
Defensively, I think you’re about as good as you were last season. Dominguez is a worse defender than Alex Verdugo, but Durbin is a better defender than Gleyber Torres. Perhaps Soto is a better defender with more time in right field, but I’m going to assume he’s a poor defensive player in 2025 because he’s been one for the majority of his career. If there’s one thing the Yankees could consider doing, it’s moving Aaron Judge to first base, but that’s too radical of an idea to plan on.
As for the pitching staff, it’s much of the same from last season in the rotation with some new names joining the bullpen:
These projections aren’t nearly as pretty as the ones we saw for the offense, but I think they should be fine for the most part. If Roki Sasaki falls into their laps that would be great, but I don’t have much faith that the Yankees would invest significant financial capital in their rotation if they add Soto and a first baseman. Would have loved Nick Pivetta as a low-cost option but he got the Qualifying Offer so I would avoid him now.
Shane Bieber could be a nice reclaimation project after undergoing TJS, and he wouldn’t cost an insane amount of money nor require a long-term commitment. It would have been nice if Will Warren took the step forward that many expected after an excellent 2023 season, because having a young starter ready in Triple-A is exactly what the Yankees would love to have right now.
Warren could factor into their bullpen early-on, his stuff is still firmly above average and he seemed to just be rattled by the big stage. The addition of Clayton Beeter into this bullpen is one I would advocate heavily for due to his riding fastball, and I expect big things from Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes after adding strong changeups during the 2024 season.
Ben Shields and Eric Reyzelman are both pitchers to keep your eyes on for a potential debut in 2025. Shields was a UDFA who shined in High-A and Double-A last season, displaying above-average breaking balls with excellent command and damage prevention. He struck out 137 MiLB batters in 106 innings last season.
Eric Reyzelman has a mid-90s fastball with elite vertical movement from a low-slot release height, and he’s an absolute electric factory. He posted a 1.16 ERA across three levels of MiLB action, striking out 40.9% of batters faced thanks to his elite heater, which is paired with a great slider and nasty changeup. Reyzelman might be a big-league ready reliever at this very moment.
Matt Blake is very good at his job and the Yankees should be able to maximize pitching talent; it’s not as if they haven’t made significant investments in that group either. Three of their starters would make up over a quarter of this team’s payroll alone. We’ll see if Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt take steps forward in 2025, but the big question is whether Gerrit Cole will still be that guy next season.
I have some concerns about the regressing strikeout rates, but honestly, I just can’t find myself doubting him until I get a sustained stretch of poor performance from him. This team would be favored to win the American League again in all likelihood, but that doesn’t make it the perfect plan. What if Hal is willing to spend more? What if the two relievers I believe can improve over their 2024 season completely suck? That’s the fun of the offseason, and it’s the Yankees who will have to try and finally bring a title back to the Bronx after 15 years of coming up short.
