Grant Holmes looks to help Braves beat Blue Jays

The Atlanta Braves are facing the Toronto Blue Jays in a matchup of two teams that are defying expectations in opposite ways. The Braves were still widely considered a favorite to win their division and are in last place, while the Blue Jays were viewed as a team that had little to no chance to catch teams like the Yankees or Orioles and now sit a half game above the Yankees in first place.

The Braves will be bringing Grant Holmes to the mound who currently has a palatable ERA of 4.00 after 9.0 innings pitched. However, outside of his ERA he has struggled. He has a FIP of 4.67, a 1.667 WHIP and has walked eight batters to only eleven strikeouts. A 1.38 SO/BB ratio is not going to cut it long term.

His walk rate of 19.5 percent puts him in the worst five percent of qualified pitchers. He has an expected ERA (xERA) of 5.92, and players are averaging an exit velocity of 92.9 MPH against him. He has been a bit fortunate in terms of BABIP with hitters having a .286. Hitters currently sport an OPS of .710 against him with a slash of .219/.366/.344.

If he can convert some of his walks to outs, we could see an instant improvement, although he needs to limit hard contact to prolong potential success.

Holmes has only faced four players on the Blue Jays, and each of them were only one at-bat. The sample size is obviously small, but three of the four got a hit off of him in their singular at-bat.

Easton Lucas will be pitching for the Blue Jays. He will be making his third career start. He has 10.1 innings so far this season and has yet to give up an earned run, while managing an elite 0.68 WHIP and 1.74 FIP. Looking at his underlying metrics like xERA, expected batting average (xBA), and others, his work to this point does not appear to be a fluke, so the Braves will have their work cutout for them.

No member of the Atlanta Braves have ever faced Lucas before, so time will tell if that is an advantage or disadvantage.