“The Guerrero agreement is great news for right fielder Kyle Tucker, a superior all-around player to Guerrero, and bad news for the Chicago Cubs, the team that acquired Tucker entering his walk year,” Rosenthal wrote. “Tucker, 28, is two years older than Guerrero, so the deal he gets probably will not be as long. But in open bidding, his AAV figures to be at least $40 million. And maybe a good bit higher. Twelve years, $42 million a year, a $504 million guarantee? Cubs owner Tom Ricketts already is weeping.”

Guerrero did not get to the open market, where he could have driven his price up. Tucker may get there, which is what could drive the price up. The Cubs made a big trade for the outfielder and cannot afford to lose him.

The Cubs will be the focus of the 2025 offseason

When the Cubs traded for Tucker, many people were surprised at the package that went the other way. Hayden Wesneski is a part of their rotation, Isaac Paredes is their starting third baseman, and Cam Smith made the team out of camp. They need to keep Tucker to make that trade worth it in the long term.

Rosenthal’s mock contract for Tucker seems like a fair place to start. He is one of the premier sluggers in the game and has won Gold Gloves in right field. He was having a dominant season last year, with 23 homers and 49 RBIs in 78 games before fracturing his shin. If he has a similar season in a 162-game sample at Wrigley Field, he would earn that $40 million annual payday.

If the Cubs cannot lock up Tucker before the season ends, he will be the prized free agent of the class. Guerrero is off the table, and many of the other big names have options. If Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Edwin Diaz, and Chris Sale all have options that could end with them in the free-agent pool.

The Cubs have to find a way to keep Tucker, even if it costs $500 million.