Somehow, the Braves have lost their first six games of the season, yet their 0-6 record feels like the least of their problems. Reynaldo Lopez was added to the 15-day IL with right shoulder inflammation, an injury that could potentially cost him the entire season, and Jurickson Profar was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for PEDs.
The Braves biggest free agent acquisition of the offseason will be able to return to the team around the All-Star break, but it makes him ineligible for the postseason. Perhaps the Braves find something in Jarred Kelenic, Alex Verdugo, Bryan De La Cruz, or Stuart Fairchild, but in all likelihood, it’s an area they will have to look to address around the trade deadline, if they are even considering buying at that point.
But this isn’t an issue that just has to do with this year. The Braves signed Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42 million contract without knowing he had been using PEDs, and no, there’s nothing they can do to void the deal now. Profar will lose over $6 million while he is suspended, but the Braves are still on the hook for the remaining $36 million of his deal.
Theoretically, it could still turn out to be a decent move by the Braves if Profar can return and play like he did in San Diego, but this PED revelation really brings into question if his 2024 campaign will be even close to sustainable. Despite coming up as the #1 prospect in baseball through the Texas Rangers organization, he never really had much success until he got to San Diego in 2022, which is a bit odd because Petco Park is notoriously pitcher friendly.
That year, Profar recorded a career-high 110 wRC+ (10% above league average) and 2.4 fWAR. He then signed a one-year deal with the Rockies the following offseason, where he was arguably the worst full-time starter in all of baseball, hitting just .236 with a .680 OPS, good for -1.6 fWAR. Again, a bit odd, considering Coors Field is undoubtedly the most hitter friendly ballpark in the league.
Jurickson Profar then returned to San Diego in 2024, where he magically regained the ability to hit, recording career-highs across the board offensively on his way to his first All-Star bid, a Silver Slugger, and a 14th place finish in the NL MVP race. The Braves believed the turnaround was one that was sustainable, and the StatCast numbers backed up their train of thinking. He was hitting the ball harder and more consistently than ever before. This was a totally different player than the previous ten years.
Notable Jurickson Profar 2024 MLB Percentile Rankings
- xwOBA — 92nd percentile
- xSLG — 72nd percentile
- Average Exit Velocity — 80th percentile
- Hard Hit % — 71st percentile
- Chase % — 90th percentile
- K% — 88th percentile
- BB % — 89th percentile
Immediately after the suspension, Jurickson Profar apologized and claimed he would never knowingly take an illegal substance. There are 42 million reasons he probably doesn’t feel too bad about it.
This feels like a player that skirted the lines and got away with it just long enough to parlay his play into a lucrative multi-year contract. I’m not sure if there’s anything the Braves could have done through the process to sniff this out, but there’s a chance this thing sours even further over the entire contract.
