It’s never wise to put too much stock in spring training numbers especially when it comes to veteran MLB players. However, we can still take a look at the process and assess how a player looks with the eye test. For Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, his latest spring training start is raising some red flags.
If you were to look at the raw spring numbers (2.08 ERA in four spring starts), you may think Lopez was on his way to repeating his magical 2024 All-Star season. However, Lopez has totaled just five strikeouts this spring all while his fastball has taken a noticeable dip in velocity. Is it time for Braves’ fans to worry about Reynaldo Lopez?
Through 3 innings at Lakeland, #Braves' Reynaldo López has averaged 93.7 mph on 16 fastballs, again down 1-2 mph from earlier in spring. He's had four FBs between 94.9-95.3, picking up velo since 1st inn. He's allowed 4 singles, no runs, no walks with 1 K, induced two GIDPs.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) March 22, 2025
Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez could be in trouble once regular season begins
Earlier this spring it was clear Lopez was working on his fastball command, but the dip in velocity was alarming. Last season Lopez averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball, and this spring he’s only hit that mark a few times instead living in the low 90s often. Throughout his 13 innings in spring training Lopez has never looked as comfortable as other Braves rotation members.
The spotty command has also raised some eyebrows in Braves camp. Last season Lopez flourished in getting ahead of hitters and them putting them away. In 2024 he ranked in the 80th percentile in strikeout percentage via Baseball Savant. However, Lopez did struggle more in the second half mainly due to some injury concerns he had toward the end of the season. The scary part is where his injuries came up; his throwing shoulder which is something you always hold your breath on.
Lopez has stated he has a goal to pitch more innings and make more starts in 2025, but should his velocity remain this low once the regular season begins that may not be in the cards for him. When Lopez takes the mound for his first regular season couple starts here shortly, fans will know just how concerned they need to be with his health.
Given the current depth of the Atlanta Braves rotation, an effective Reynaldo Lopez in 2025 is very important for this team. And now with his worrisome spring training he’s going to be a player we should all keep a close eye on during the first couple weeks of the season. Hopefully, as a veteran this spring training has been a mere tune-up for Lopez and once the real game action kicks off he goes to another gear with his velocity. However, should that not happen we’ll have to admit the warning signs were already there.
