New York Mets owner Steve Cohen poured nearly $1 billion into contracts this offseason following the team’s unexpected NLCS run last year.

The Mets secured superstar Juan Soto ($765 million), converted All-Star reliever Clay Holmes into a starter ($38 million), added pitcher Frankie Montas ($34 million), and reliever A.J. Minter, while retaining power-hitting first baseman Pete Alonso ($54 million), starter Sean Manaea ($75 million), and designated hitter Jesse Winker ($7.5 million).

According to FanGraphs, New York’s estimated 2025 payroll now stands at $332 million, forcing Cohen to pay a 110% tax on every dollar exceeding the $301 million threshold.

These investments naturally create postseason expectations, but one MLB insider offers a surprising prediction about the Mets’ playoff chances.

MLB insider: New York Mets will miss playoffs

MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince believes the Mets will fall short of the playoffs in 2025, despite their aggressive moves.

“If the Phillies and Braves have healthy years, I would take their pitching staffs over that of the Mets. And as for the Wild Card spots, the NL is simply stacked and could be unforgiving to a Mets club that obviously upgraded its lineup a huge deal but has an iffy pitching picture,” Castrovince wrote.

The pitching concerns are legitimate. The Mets lack a true No. 1 ace after missing out on Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. Holmes was unexpectedly named the Opening Day starter while 2023 All-Star Kodai Senga will return against the Miami Marlins during the rotation’s first cycle. Both Manaea and Montas begin the season on the injured list — Manaea with a strained oblique expected back in mid-to-late April, and Montas with a high-grade lat strain likely sidelining him until June.

The margin for error appears slim. Last season, the Mets barely secured their playoff spot, clinching only in Game 161 rather than dominating their Wild Card position.

“The Mets have a wily front office and an aggressive owner, and those are traits that will serve them well navigating these early injuries and perhaps at the Trade Deadline,” Castrovince notes. “But they outperformed peripherals (they were 28-16 in one-run games) and expectations last season. Because of the relative strength of the league, I don’t know that the Soto signing is the automatic playoff entry so many might assume it to be.”

FanGraphs projects an 86-76 finish for the Mets in 2025. If Cohen’s billion-dollar investment fails to secure a playoff berth, it would represent nothing short of a catastrophic failure for a franchise with championship aspirations.