This spring training has generated a lot of buzz for Atlanta Braves top prospect Drake Baldwin. While Baldwin should play a big role for the team early on in the season, he may not end up playing as much as another top prospect battling for a roster spot this spring.
Top Braves pitching prospect AJ Smith-Shawver finds himself in a battle with Grant Holmes, and Ian Anderson for the final two spots in the Braves’ 2025 rotation. However, Smith-Shawver fights an uphill battle as he is the only candidate with minor league options. All that said, AJSS has shown this spring that when he is on he has the potential to be really special in 2025.
Yesterday afternoon, AJSS pitched four really impressive innings against the Minnesota Twins. During that outing Smith-Shawver struck out eight hitters and hit 99 mph a few times with his fastball while surrendering just two runs. The performance was so impressive that one Braves insider broke out a bold prediction for Smith-Shawver’s 2025 campaign.
Based on what I saw tonight, this doesn’t feel like a bold prediction. Smith-Shawver will make 20-plus starts for Atlanta this year. There’s no reason he can’t do what Schwellenbach did last year. Could be in the rotation earlier than Schwellenbach was in 2024
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) March 15, 2025
Mark Bowman claims Braves’ top pitching prospect could repeat Schwellenbach’s magical 2024
MLB.com’s and Braves insider, Mark Bowman, went out on a limb after Smith-Shawver’s impressive outing versus the Twins claiming the top pitching prospect could be in line for 20-plus starts this season. Bowman punctuated that statement by claiming AJSS could be in line for a similar season to what Spencer Schwellenbach produced last year.
It may feel a bit premature to call for that type of performance from the 22 year-old righty given he’s pitched just eight innings of 3.75 ERA ball this spring. However, it’s more so about the “stuff” AJSS has flashed this spring training. He’s introduced a new cutter, while simultaneously attacking the zone more with his high octane fastball and impressive secondary offerings.
Last season, Spencer Schwellenbach saved the backend of Atlanta’s rotation by pitching 123 innings of 3.35 ERA and 3.29 FIP baseball. It’s why the second year star out of Nebraska is generating a ton of hype entering this season. For AJ Smith-Shawver that’s a tall task to live up to.
Current Fangraphs Steamer projections have AJSS starting just six games and pitching 76 innings in 2025. Bowman seems to think that projection feels a bit light. And yes, AJSS may not even begin the season in the big league rotation due to his minor league options, but it wouldn’t be a shock if come early May he is clearly a stronger rotation option than Anderson or Holmes. These things normally have a way of playing themselves out, but so long as the Braves’ top pitching prospect keeps showcasing his impressive arsenal throughout the spring, Atlanta will have no choice but to give him the chance to contribute for the Major League club at some point.
