This is a make-or-break season for this iteration of the Chicago Cubs.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledges the uncomfortable uncertainty in the final year of his contract. The learning curve is over for manager Craig Counsell, who has had two winters, two spring training programs and a full 162-game season to put his imprint on the team. The margin for error has decreased since the Ricketts family ownership group and Crane Kenney’s business operations department have not authorized a payroll commensurate with the franchise’s revenue base, market size or previous World Series ambitions.

Kyle Tucker, a rental player acquired from the Houston Astros this past offseason, will be playing for his next contract, which could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Tucker’s superstar talent, plus an organizational obsession with value and pitching depth, is supposed to equal the club’s first playoff berth since 2020. But even in a division as weak as the National League Central, it won’t be an easy journey.

Bold prediction

The Cubs will finish slightly north of 83 wins, capturing the division title after trading for Sandy Alcantara in a blockbuster deadline deal with the Miami Marlins.

Projected starting lineup

In each of the last three seasons, Happ has won a Gold Glove and finished with an OPS between .781 and .791, making him a model of consistency.

There is no expectation that the two sides will seriously engage on a contract extension during the season, which might make Tucker the No. 1 free agent on next winter’s Big Board.

This is Year 4 in Chicago for Suzuki, meaning it’s time to put together a fully impactful wire-to-wire season rather than just showing flashes of being one of the best hitters in the game.

In building off a solid rookie season, the Cubs believe Busch could continue developing into a Gold Glove first baseman, though it remains to be seen whether he will put up more of the power numbers traditionally associated with that position.

A first-round pick in the 2023 draft, Shaw will get an extended opportunity after the Cubs failed to sign All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman.

The $177 million shortstop could be more productive this year after playing through a core muscle injury that ultimately required offseason surgery to fix a sports hernia.

The Gold Glove defender is expected to be active for domestic Opening Day after missing the Tokyo Series while recovering from offseason flexor tendon surgery.

Between his speed, highlight-reel defense and creative hairstyles, “PCA” might become the Cubs’ most electric player since Javier Báez if he reaches his full potential.

Already respected by pitchers for his attention to detail, Amaya should also benefit from the presence of Carson Kelly, the veteran catcher signed to be a co-starter.

Projected rotation

The Cubs hope the Tokyo Series will be the launching point for another spectacular season from the engaging Japanese pitcher.

The goal is 30 starts and 180 innings, and if Steele reaches those thresholds, the Cubs will have a good chance of playing in October.

A reliable starter and a leader in the clubhouse, Taillon is halfway through a four-year, $68 million contract and is optimistic that he will be pitching in the postseason.

The Cubs are putting a lot of stock in Boyd’s strong playoff performance with the Cleveland Guardians last season, giving a two-year, $29 million deal to a pitcher who hasn’t thrown a full season since 2019.

A strained oblique means Assad will start the season on the injured list, but he has quietly put together a quality body of work that should make his return to the rotation a matter of when, not if.

Projected top relievers

In waiving his no-trade clause, Pressly welcomed the opportunity to finish games at Wrigley Field and mentor inexperienced relievers, believing he still has the right stuff to anchor a championship-caliber bullpen after Josh Hader bumped him out of that role in Houston.

The Cubs essentially assigned Hodge to shadow Pressly during spring training, believing the young, hard-throwing reliever can learn a lot from the veteran closer and enjoy a similarly long and productive career.

How the Cubs stack up

“Hope” is from Stephen J. Nesbitt’s annual Hope-O-Meter fan optimism survey. “Farm” is from Keith Law’s farm system rankings. “Bats” and “arms” are from Jim Bowden’s ranking of Opening Day lineups and rotations. “PWR” is from The Athletic’s preseason power rankings. Team projections come from Austin Mock, while Jake Ciely provided player projections. Both are current as of March 13.

(Top photo: Kamil Krzaczynski / Imagn Images)

Patrick Mooney is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. He spent eight seasons covering the Cubs across multiple platforms for NBC Sports Chicago/Comcast SportsNet, beginning in 2010. He has been a frequent contributor to MLB Network, Baseball America, MLB.com and the Chicago Sun-Times News Group. Follow Patrick on Twitter @PJ_Mooney