After initially spurning the idea of joining the Houston Astros, Nolan Arenado has reportedly experienced a change of heart. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran third baseman “might now be inclined” to waive his no-trade clause for the four-time reigning AL West champions, per MLB.com.

Arenado blocked a swap that would’ve re-routed him from St. Louis to Houston in December. He wasn’t confident about the direction the franchise was heading then, and reasonably so: After all, they’d just sent three-time All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs and were in the process of losing long-time third baseman Alex Bregman walk in free agency.

Houston has ostensibly done enough in the following months to convince Arenado they’re still contenders in a seemingly wide-open 2025 American League race. Of course, this is a positive development for the Astros. But it doesn’t bode well for the betting favorites to win the pennant: the New York Yankees.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB offseason.

Nolan Arenado-Astros trade buzz resurfacing could haunt the Yankees

The Astros are already arguably New York’s biggest threat in the AL outside of the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox. If the latest sportsbook odds are any indication, Houston’s retooling this winter hasn’t made them any less competitive. Despite some new faces in the mix, they’re still equipped to give the Yankees fits.

Arenado isn’t the dominant middle-of-the-lineup player he once was, dating back to his stint with the Colorado Rockies and early days with the Cardinals. But in the notoriously hitter-friendly Daikin Park, specifically for right-handed batters like him, he doesn’t need to be. The 315-foot distance from home plate to the Crawford Boxes in left field can help overcome any continued regression.

Moreover, Arenado’s prowess as an all-time great defender at the hot corner is well-chronicled. The 10-time Gold Glove winner is an ideal replacement for Bregman and can even be considered an upgrade. The latter is also well-regarded for his fielding skills, though he isn’t as decorated as the former.

This past season, Arenado hit 16 home runs and 71 RBIs with a solid .272/.325/.394 slash line across 635 plate appearances. His .719 OPS was slightly above the 2024 MLB average rate of .711. Those numbers all figure to improve in Houston (assuming a deal gets done), which could have the Yankees and GM Brian Cashman regretting how they handled things this offseason.

Of course, the Yankees were another team on Arenado’s initial approved list of landing spots. The team was understandably reticent to take on so much money for an aging player who didn’t profile all that well in Yankee Stadium. But they also never addressed their third-base situation, staring at DJ LeMahieu as an everyday option entering Opening Day, and if Arenado thrives in Houston, you just know Yankees fans will have a field day second-guessing things.