With Alex Bregman signing, the Red Sox make an appropriate big-market flex

Eureka! The Boston Red Sox found it.

Found money. Found a right-handed hitter. Maybe even found their soul.

Too dramatic? Perhaps. But the Red Sox’s agreement with free agent Alex Bregman — three years, $120 million with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome — is a significant step forward for an organization that has been too cautious, too conservative and too cheap for too long.

If this isn’t “full throttle,” the aggressive approach Sox chairman Tom Werner promised last offseason, it’s at least a marked acceleration. Adding Bregman to the Sox’s previous offseason pickups — right-hander Walker Buehler, left-handers Garrett Crochet and Patrick Sandoval and lefty relievers Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson — makes Boston a legitimate threat for a wild card and possibly a threat to the New York Yankees in the AL East.

Yet, there’s a caveat.

The Sox should play Bregman at third base, the position where he won his first Gold Glove last season. Such a move would reduce Rafael Devers to a designated hitter in the second year of a 10-year, $313.5 million contract. But Devers last season rated as one of the worst defensive third basemen in the game.

True, Bregman might be with Boston only one season, difficult as it might be to imagine him opting out of two more years of a $40 million average annual value, which matches Aaron Judge for the sixth highest in major-league history with a yet-to-be-reported amount deferred. True, Bregman also is capable of winning a Gold Glove at second base, a position he has expressed a willingness to play.

The best Red Sox defensive infield, however, would be Bregman at third, Trevor Story at short, Vaughn Grissom or top infield prospect Kristian Campbell at second and Triston Casas at first. Devers’ bat might play even better if he can focus solely on hitting. And Masataka Yoshida, the projected DH who is owed $54 million over the next three seasons? Trade him, even if it means paying a significant part of his salary. He’s a sunk cost.

For big-market teams, mistakes such as the Yoshida contract are the occasional price of doing business. The Red Sox carried a top-five payroll from 2004 to ’20, but in recent years went into retreat. Their march to the League Championship Series in 2021 was a revelation. But they finished last in 2020, ’22 and ’23, and were only .500 in ’24.

Earlier this offseason, the Red Sox offered Juan Soto about $700 million for 15 years, according to multiple reports. But they didn’t land Soto or either of the top two starting pitchers on the market, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. And even after agreeing with Bregman, the six-year, $140 million signing of Story in March 2022 remains their biggest free-agent deal since the addition of left-hander David Price on a seven-year, $217 million contract in December 2015.

With Alex Bregman signing, the Red Sox make an appropriate big-market flex

Will Rafael Devers remain the Red Sox’s starting third baseman with Alex Bregman’s arrival? (Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)

The Sox in the interim awarded two extensions with guarantees above Story’s — Devers’ contract, the largest in franchise history, and Chris Sale’s five-year, $145 million deal. Story in his first three seasons with the Sox played in a total of 163 games. Sale also was injured for much of his deal and eventually was traded to the Atlanta Braves, for whom he promptly won a Cy Young. Devers’ contract was an overreaction to the ill-fated trade of Mookie Betts and loss of Xander Bogaerts in free agency.

Though Devers is only 28, the mere prospect of him moving to DH indicates his deal might not age well. OK, but what are the Red Sox supposed to do, throw a hissy fit over past miscalculations and refuse to spend ever again? For a time, that seemed to be owner John Henry’s position. A better solution is to make better decisions, and perhaps the Bregman contract — chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s biggest deal since taking over in October 2023 — will be a start.

Bregman’s rate stats after a six-week slump at the start of last season were pretty much in line with his career numbers, but some of his trend lines are disturbing. His .315 on-base percentage last season was the lowest of his career by 35 points, a decline Bregman attributed to “swinging too much.” His OPS against lefties, .981 from 2016 to ’21, dropped to .704 from 2022 to ’24.

Playing at Fenway Park, where Bregman is a lifetime .375 hitter with a 1.240 OPS, should correct some of his ills. Bregman also offers the type of leadership that is difficult to find in today’s game. In his final season with the Houston Astros, he helped fix two pitchers, right-handers Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.  The spark he will provide almost certainly will evoke comparisons to Dustin Pedroia, who played a major role for two World Series champions in Boston.

Bregman should not lack for motivation. He turned down a six-year, $171.5 million deal from the Tigers, according to a source briefed on his negotiations, a proposal $15.5 million above the Astros’ initial six-year offer. If he opts out after Year 1, he will need to sign a five-year contract for more than $131.5 million to beat the Tigers’ proposed guarantee, which like the Red Sox’s deal reportedly included deferrals. Such a number likely would be difficult for Bregman to attain entering his age-32 season. But a big year also might persuade the Red Sox to rework his deal.

The Sox essentially chose Bregman over the St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado, a third baseman who is three years older. Arenado likely could have been acquired for something in the range of $45 million over three years, based on the terms of the trade he rejected to the Astros. But his offense declined sharply in each of the past two seasons. He also did not offer the positional flexibility of Bregman, who at least gives the Red Sox the option of keeping Devers at third base.

Bregman at $40 million per season is a heck of a lot more expensive than Arenado at $15 million per, but no matter. The ensuing roster complications will not be easy for the Red Sox to sort through, but never mind that, either. The Sox limited their exposure by guaranteeing Bregman half as many years as two other clubs offered. His agreement, coming at a time when The Athletic’s Keith Law rates the Boston farm system as the second best in the game, is an appropriate big-market flex.

Dare we say it? The Red Sox are back.

(Top photo: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)

Ken Rosenthal is the senior baseball writer for The Athletic who has spent nearly 35 years covering the major leagues. In addition, Ken is a broadcaster and regular contributor to Fox Sports’ MLB telecasts. He’s also won Emmy Awards in 2015 and 2016 for his TV reporting. Follow Ken on Twitter @Ken_Rosenthal

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