Orioles fans have had an interesting offseason. On one hand, both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander left in free agency. In a vacuum, that’s certainly not the outcome we were hoping for. But there’s also a lot of reason to be optimistic about the Orioles chances in 2025.

We’re hopeful about a potential Jackson Holliday breakout, and a full season’s worth of playing time for Jordan Westburg. Colton Cowser has a big rookie season to build off, and a healthy year for Adley Rutschman is just what the doctor ordered. And that doesn’t include the upside of the pitching staff, or the likelihood of getting Kyle Bradish back in the second half.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have picked up on a lot of that, and the system is very high on the Orioles heading into 2025. So much so that the O’s have the 4th highest win total projection in the entire league. PECOTA thinks they’re an 89-win team, behind only the Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs.

PECOTA has the O’s virtually tied with the Yankees atop the AL East. It has both with a roughly 75% chance to make the postseason, and thinks the Orioles have a near 40% chance to win the division outright. That would be a stellar outcome for this team, especially after the approach to this offseason has left fans wanting a bit more out of Mike Elias and his front office team.

Latest PECOTA projections love the Orioles’ chances in 2025
If recent projections are anything of note, then things might go well for the Orioles this year. In 2024, PECOTA had the Orioles pegged for 87 wins. While the team sustained a significant number of injuries and fell short of expectations in the postseason, they did win 91 games in the regular season and very nearly captured the AL East title. 2023 was similar, with the Orioles outperforming PECOTA’s expectations.

Arguably the biggest issue the Orioles have going into 2025 is that at this point in the process, they’re not going to be able to sneak past anyone. While they haven’t been successful in October, they’ve won a combined 192 games over the last two seasons. Other teams are now seeing the O’s as a serious contender and in order for this team to outperform expectations again, it’s going to take a truly impressive performance.

Like it or not, the fanbase is looking for an AL East title and a deep postseason run this year. It doesn’t necessarily have to culminate in a World Series championship to be deemed a successful year, but fans want to see this team win games in October when they count the most.