There are numerous reasons to believe Edwin Díaz can be elite again.
Edwin Díaz returned as the closer for the New York Mets after missing the entire 2023 season due to a torn patellar tendon suffered after closing out a victory for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.
Coming off the injury, Díaz successfully saved 20 of 27 opportunities in 2024 while posting a 3.52 ERA across 53.2 innings. These numbers are not quite what Mets fans are accustomed to, especially considering that Díaz temporarily lost his closer’s job in May. He also had a stint on the IL and was suspended for 10 games in June after umpires discovered a sticky substance on his hand.
Another year removed from a major injury should help Edwin Díaz rediscover his dominant form
It was clear that Díaz was shaking off some rust in 2024. He consistently struggled to find the strike zone and execute his typically devastating slider. This forced him to rely more on a fastball that had seen a dip in velocity from 99.1 MPH to 97.6 MPH, making him more predictable and easier to hit. This was evident as his chase rate dropped from 37.7% prior to his injury to 30.1%. Hitters also pulled the ball off Díaz at a 50.5% rate, the highest of his career.
Now, his 2024 season was still very good, but fans remember the 2022 Edwin Díaz who posted a 1.31 ERA. The reality is that even though several of his metrics, including xFIP, xERA, and xwOBA aligned with his career norms in 2024, his 2022 season is unlikely to be repeated.
As mentioned above, Díaz’s underlying metrics were similar to previous seasons, which suggests the inconsistencies of 2024 were mostly execution based. Having not thrown a competitive pitch in a full year offers a logical explanation for why those execution inconsistencies occurred. The hope is that moving forward Díaz can find a middle ground—one that gives Mets fans more confidence entering the ninth inning of one-run games without expecting the perfection he displayed in 2022.
Another year removed from injury, including a fully healthy offseason, should help Díaz work out some of the hiccups from 2024. Combine that with the fact that, despite those struggles, most of his underlying metrics graded out at elite levels, and Mets fans should expect an improved Edwin Díaz this season. Fangraphs projects a 2.94 ERA, 12.48 K/9, and 36 saves for Díaz in 2025. A season like that reaffirms him as one of the best closers in the sport.
