Tylor Megill has appeared in each of the last four seasons for the New York Mets. Overall, he hasn’t had great numbers, with a 4.56 ERA, 4.40 FIP, and 1.39 WHIP. He has a respectable 23.3% K% and 8.8% walk rate throughout his career thus far but has struggled to limit home runs with a 1.37 HR/9 rate. However, based on Megill’s 2024 season, he could be on the verge of a breakout, which could be a huge positive for the Mets’ pitching staff in 2025.

Megill pitched 78 innings in 2024 with a 4.04 ERA but a 3.55 FIP. His 9.5% walk rate was below average, but he struck out batters at a career-best 27% rate. For the first time in his Major League career in a single season, Megill had a sub-1.00 HR/9 rate, clocking in at 0.92. However, there are more numbers that point to a potential 2025 breakout.

Megill had both a 3.81 SIERA  and 3.79 xFIP. He induced a whiff 28% of the time, another career-best. This was a massive uptick from 23.6% during the 2023 season. Megill used six different pitches at least 5% of the time in 2024. Of those six, five had a whiff rate of at least 27%. The highest was his splitter, which clocked in with a 42.9% swing and miss rate, the 13th highest among pitchers who used a splitter against at least 25 batters. He used it 7.5% of the time last year.

Getting batters to swing and miss more frequently wasn’t the only major improvement he made. He fooled batters at a much higher rate in 2024. Megill’s highest chase rate was 25.4%, set in 2022, when he only pitched 47.1 innings. In 2024, Megill got batters to swing outside the strike zone 30.2% of the time. Although Megill’s 88.9 MPH exit velocity was below average, it was still the best he’s put up in one year. Although, his 10% barrel rate falls right in line with his career average.

Megill’s pitch quality also improved. His four-seam fastball averaged out at 94.9 MPH in 2023 but rose to 95.7 MPH in 2024. It also gained better vertical movement with 15.7 inches of drop in 2023 compared to 13.8 inches in 2024. Stuff+, a statistic that essentially measures pitch quality based on multiple factors and puts it on a scale similar to OPS+ or wRC+, put Megill at a below-average 89 in 2023. That jumped to 103 last season.

A Tylor Megill breakout could be on the horizon, and give the Mets’ pitching staff a big boost.

All of those numbers could help Megill build off of 2024, but a breakout in 2025 for the right-hander would significantly impact the Mets’ pitching staff. The Mets are definitely taking a risk with their starting rotation. Frankie Montas hasn’t consistently been good since 2022, and they signed Clay Holmes, who has served as the NY Yankees’ closer the last three seasons, to fill out the back of the rotation. If Megill pitches to his numbers, he could end up being a good rotation piece for 2025.

Alternatively, if both Holmes and Montas do well, or the Mets opt to call upon a young starter like Brandon Sproat before turning to Megill to fill in the rotation, he could still be an effective reliever. Megill has held opponents to a .703 OPS the first time through the order, but that rises to .742 the second time through. In instances when batters have faced Megill a third time, they knock him around the yard for a .910 OPS.

Moving Megill to a relief role would also likely help his stuff play up. Megill was already averaging out around 95-96 MPH, topping out at 98.1 MPH in 2024 while making 15 starts in 16 games. A traditional relief role where he is only tossing 1-2 innings at a time would help him gain another tick of velocity.

Tylor Megill definitely has the potential to break out in 2025. His underlying numbers were above average, and he has a solid pitch mix that grades out as average or better. If Megill takes another step forward in 2025, he’ll end the season as a valuable part of the Mets’ pitching staff.