No matter the situation, there is a refusal to count out the Atlanta Braves for next season. FanGraphs and the PECOTA projections don’t just favor the Braves to make the playoffs but to re-take the National League East from the Philadelphia Phillies.
FanGraphs gives the Braves a 61.9% chance to win the NL East along with a 92.6% chance to make the postseason overall. The Phillies have a 20.1% chance. Even after the signing of Juan Soto, the Mets have the third-best chance to win the East.
Here are the NL East teams with their projected records, round to the closest whole number, for 2025:
- Atlanta Braves 93-68
- Philadelphia Phillies 87-75
- New York Mets 87-75
- Washington Nationals 72-90
- Miami Marlins 70-92
The Braves also have the second-best odds to win the World Series behind the Dodgers with a 15.1% chance.
The PECOTA projections are similar with the Braves winning the division with a 92-70 record. However, the Mets take second place in this projection, once again finishing 89-73. The Phillies would regress to finish at 88-74.
“Atlanta certainly has the roster to take back the division, especially if Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider play at their usual level as they return from injury,” MLB.com’s David Adler wrote on the PECOTA Projections. “But the Phillies and Mets have plenty of star power, too. That’s why all three teams have a better than two-in-three chance to reach the postseason, per PECOTA, and why the NL East is the only division with three projected 88-win teams.”
It serves as a reminder of how loaded a healthy Braves roster is that they can still compete with the other teams that made bigger additions this offseason. While the Profar signing is the Braves’ only major move, it likely helped move the needle a bit by reinforcing the lineup.
Some other factors need to go the Braves’ way as well. Chris Sale’s and Reynaldo Lopez’s All-Star seasons aren’t expected to be one-offs. Though the projections are reasonable. Sale is projected to have a 3.07 ERA and Lopez is projected to have a 3.90 ERA. Those would be step-back seasons compared to last year, but would both still be productive.
