Milwaukee Brewers Dethroned In 2025, Per PECOTA Projections

The Milwaukee Brewers have typically always been a team that has over-performed expectations, specifically ones driven by computer models. PECOTA is one projection model system that draws a lot of attention and according to their analytics the Brew Crew will not only be dethroned by the Chicago Cubs in the division this year, but they will also finish below .500.

2025 PECOTA projections have the Milwaukee Brewers being dethroned by the Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers Dethroned In 2025, Per PECOTA Projections — Oct 3, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio (11) reacts in the dugout after losing game three of the Wildcard round against the New York Mets in the 2024 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

After numerous simulations, PECOTA projects the Cubs at 90.5 wins and 71.5 losses next year plus winning the National League Central division. Milwaukee came in second at 80.5 wins and 81.5 losses. A season ago the Brewers won the division by 10 games over the Cubs, so this projection is a complete 180 degree flip.

Why are the Brewers projections so bad?

Computer models like PECOTA tend to favor proven players living up to their expectations, while taking into account age regression based on position. These systems do not particularly favor less proven players repeating success. Losing proven veterans like Willy Adames and Devin Williams hurt the Brewers projections for 2025.

Examples of players who are projected to regress in 2025, per PECOTA

PECOTA really does not like the Brewers offense in 2025. Star Jackson Chourio, who is coming off a strong .275/.327/.464 season, is expected to drop off to .251/.301/.413. Catcher William Contreras was projected at .256/.335/.442 after a .281/.365/.466 season last year. Even Christian Yelich didn’t get much love as PECOTA projected him to slash .248/.341/.388.

In the end, these are just projections. Milwaukee has proven year after year that they will over perform what the computer models say. I would expect 2025 to be no different.

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