The Philadelphia Phillies have overhauled their roster and have come a long way from the dread they played through a decade ago. They’ve built a starting rotation that could oppose any other team in the sport with absolute conviction. The Phillies remain determined as ever to chase down their first World Series title since 2008.
The man who has been here since the beginning is right-handed starter Aaron Nola. Nola has been the definition of a workhorse, accumulating the fourth-most innings pitched with 1,621 1/3 innings since he debuted in July of 2015. He has gotten the Phillies through some tough years and now fits in comfortably behind ace Zack Wheeler in the No. 2 spot in the rotation.
With Nola still being such a vital piece in the rotation’s success, it’s paramount that he remains at the top of his game in 2025.
Nola has been durable and super reliable year after year. He has remained healthy and has made at least 32 starts every year since 2018 (except for 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season). The flip side to his massive innings output is his lack of efficiency every year. Nola will look to be strong again for 2025 for another deep playoff run, but based on his track record, it’s no easy guess if he will.
This year will be crucial for Nola to hold up the rotation once again. The seven-year deal he signed with the Phillies last offseason shows that the club has faith in him, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. They know he can settle into a season just as well as any other pitcher.
According to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, Nola is projected to have a 3.83 ERA in 2025, slightly above his career mark of 3.70 ERA. Nola is coming off a 2024 in which he produced a 3.57 ERA with 197 strikeouts in 199 1/3 innings. The upcoming season could be a turning point for Nola, but a history of stacking solid seasons hasn’t been on his side.
In 2020, Nola maintained a steady 3.28 ERA in 12 starts, which aligned with the Cy Young-caliber pitcher we saw in his third-place finish in 2018. Since then, it’s been the ultimate roller coaster ride. His odd-numbered years of 2021 and 2023 sported a 4.63 ERA and a 4.46 ERA, but he put up a 3.25 ERA and a 3.57 ERA in 2022 and 2024. This doesn’t match with the consistent production that Nola brings each year.
The upside is, for Nola coming into his age-32 season, his xERA over the last five seasons has shown him as a more favorable pitcher overall. He’s been producing at an average of a 3.37 xERA over that span. Maybe it has been just bad luck for Nola, and things will smooth out going forward. The Phillies need their staff to be just as great as they were last season. They won the division last year, but greater things remain in view for 2025.
