The Philadelphia Phillies have three major players set to hit free agency after the 2025 season. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, designated hitter and outfielder Kyle Schwarber and starting pitcher Ranger Suárez are all on the last year of their contracts.

Todd Zolecki, Jim Salisbury and Rubén Amaro Jr. discussed the least likely player to return to the Phillies in 2026 on a recent episode of The Phillies Show podcast. The trio picked Suárez.

Prediction for Phillies free agent least likely to return in 2026 will crush fans

Suárez hired super agent Scott Boras this offseason as he heads into a contract year. Despite his struggles in 2024, Suárez is a proven starter in this league who is looking for a big payday. Spotrac calculated his average annual salary to be $18.9 million on his next contract.

“I think he’s gonna look for his big score and yeah the way the prices of pitching are and where they are on the luxury tax, I could see him being the least likely to be back in ’26,” Salisbury said about Suárez’s future with the Phillies.

The Phillies are already paying fellow starters Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola significant money. Cristopher Sánchez signed a four-year extension during the 2024 season, and the team traded for former Miami Marlins starter Jesús Luzardo this offseason who has two years of control. Top pitching prospect Andrew Painter is knocking on the door of making his major league debut and will join the starting rotation sooner rather than later.

“100 percent yeah, Ranger to me, with Painter coming up, with Luzardo under control for another year,” Zolecki said referring to Suárez being the least likely free agent to return in 2026. “You can’t bring everybody back and we love pitching but that’s probably the guy least likely.”

Ranger Suárez’s time with Phillies may come to an end after 2025

Suárez made his debut for the Phillies in 2018, but it wasn’t until 2021 that he really found his place within the organization. The left-hander had some experience as a starter, but he was mainly utilized as a reliever through the early parts of his career.

Suárez was used in the bullpen for his first 27 appearances of the 2021 season until the Phillies transitioned him to the starting rotation. He started 12 games and ended the season with a 1.36 ERA across 106 innings between the bullpen and rotation.

Suárez started 29 games for the Phillies in 2022 and owned a 10-7 record with a 3.65 ERA. He appeared in five games during the Phillies’ magical postseason run to the World Series, including three starts. He posted a 1.23 ERA with 13 strikeouts and a save across 14 2/3 innings and became a fan favorite in the City of Brotherly Love.

Suárez’s ERA rose to 4.18 in 2023, but come playoff time, he locked in. In four starts, he posted a 1.93 ERA with 19 strikeouts.

Suárez started the 2024 season as a Cy Young favorite. The 29-year-old was 10-1 with a 1.75 ERA through June 19. Opponents were hitting just .191 against him. He allowed eight hits and four runs through six innings in a loss to the Detroit Tigers on June 25. His season went downhill from there.

Suárez was named to the first All-Star Game of his career for his dominant first half, but his second-half struggles were alarming. He went 2-4 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.69 WHIP and opponents were hitting .311 against him in eight starts after the All-Star break. He averaged under five innings per start in those appearances.

Suárez missed about a month with a back injury from the end of July to the end of August that might’ve affected his performance. Nonetheless, he looked like a completely different pitcher from the first half of the season.

The Phillies were facing elimination heading into Game 4 of the NLDS against the New York Mets, and manager Rob Thomson decided to put the struggling Suárez on the mound in the win-or-go-home matchup. Suárez put the unfortunate end to his season behind him and gutted out 4 1/3 impressive innings. He channeled his previous playoff success and struck out eight batters while not allowing a run. The Phillies went on to lose the game 4-1.

Even if he bounces back in 2025, the Phillies will likely move on from Suárez given their financial commitments at the position and future pieces ready to make an impact.