It’s Juan Soto free agency season!
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ five-game World Series triumph over the New York Yankees means the MLB offseason will start a few days sooner than many expected, bringing the highly anticipated free agency of Soto into the spotlight.
Will the generational 26-year-old hitter get $500 million, $600 million or even $700 million this winter? Will we see a New York showdown between the Yankees and Mets to land this winter’s most sought-after star — and which other MLB teams could be heavily involved? What could make the difference in landing the premier free agent in this year’s class?
We asked our MLB experts to break it all down, with Kiley McDaniel predicting Soto’s upcoming payday and Jesse Rogers identifying the teams that could land him.
How much will Soto get?
When we projected potential Soto contracts in June, with the help of 28 MLB insiders, the average response already approached $500 million — and the predictions were even bolder when we polled the industry again during the postseason. No surprise, Soto’s stellar season in the Bronx and starring role this October has only upped his value.
Under $550 million (3):
10 years, $500 million (Yankees)
13 years, $520 million (Mets)
12 years, $540 million (Yankees)
$550 to $599 million (3):
10 years, $550 million (Mets)
12 years, $555 million (Yankees)
14 years, $588 million (Yankees)
$600 to $699 million (7):
14 years, $600 million with opt out after five years (Yankees)
12 years, $600 million (Mets)
12 years, $600 million (Yankees)
10 years, $600 million (Mets)
13 years, $611 million (Yankees)
15 years, $630 million (Yankees)
10 years, $655 million (Dodgers)
At least $700 million (2):
15 years, $715 million, (Yankees, deferrals to a $500 million net present value)
15 years, $715 million, (Mets, deferrals to a $660 million net present value)
The median/average prediction in June was roughly 12.5 years, $40 million average annual value and $500 million total. It seemed clear that most of the panel started with that round number for the total guaranteed amount and made adjustments based on the market, perceived Soto preferences, and how competitive bidding could become.
This time, the panel clumped around 13 years, $46 million AAV and $600 million total — a 15% raise in AAV in four months.
Many sources believe that Soto’s camp wants to beat specific benchmarks in Shohei Ohtani’s record-setting deal from last offseason: the net present value calculation on total money ($460.8 million) and AAV ($46.08 million). They’ll certainly also push for the biggest guarantee possible, with deferrals and adding years (to lower the CBT value of the contract) as the tools to get there.
As our responses show, that means the final terms could be presented in a variety of ways, but every deal predicted by our insiders this month would guarantee Soto the most total dollars given to any free agent outside of Ohtani’s deferral-heavy $700 million deal, easily exceeding the second highest, Aaron Judge’s nine-year, $360 million contract with the Yankees.
Who are the most likely suitors?
Most of our answers included predictions that Soto will stay in New York, whether it be with the Yankees or Mets, but those certainly won’t be the only teams in the running to land him.
In recent years, it felt like some marquee free agents were reliant on a small group of teams willing to reach a desired number, but the list of teams that can fit Soto into their team structure and budget is long enough that he shouldn’t have to wait long to decide.
Here are the seven most likely suitors from our conversations around the sport.
New York Yankees: Obviously, the Yankees are expected to be Soto’s No. 1 suitor. After years of chasing a game-changing left-handed bat, GM Brian Cashman probably doesn’t want to return to square one when it comes to balancing his lineup and complementing Aaron Judge. Especially not when Soto has excelled in the New York spotlight and said all the right things about loving his new city and team.
New York Mets: Pairing Soto with Francisco Lindor could be a dream come true for Mets owner Steve Cohen, who can easily afford to add Soto — especially considering all of the money that the Mets have coming off the books. New York will be done paying Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer in 2025, and they have plenty of money coming off the books in free agency. The Mets have a decision to make about free agent Pete Alonso, and his exit would create a huge power void on the team — one Soto would fill and then some.
Texas Rangers: Texas wasn’t happy with a 2025 repeat attempt that fell far short of aspirations, and after the offense took a big step back, the Rangers were left wondering which young players are for real. Soto would give them another slugger around Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, and he is actually still younger than some of the hitters Texas is waiting to see develop. One big weakness for Texas was an offense that ranked 26th in OPS against right-handed pitching: Pairing Soto and Seager would undoubtedly alter those numbers for the better. We’ve seen the Rangers dole out big long-term deals to hitters before — the only problem this offseason could be another year of monetary restrictions due to the lack of local television revenue.
Washington Nationals: It would make for a good story: The prodigal son of the team that originally signed him out of the Dominican Republic comes home for an even larger payday than the one he turned down ($440 million) in 2022. Perhaps it’s a long shot but general manager Mike Rizzo has quietly indicated he’s ready to fast forward his mini-rebuild, and without a star or two in the lineup, Washington will be hard-pressed to compete in a stacked NL East. If Rizzo can pull off a Soto reunion, it would be one of the great GM sequences in recent history: getting a haul from San Diego in return for a superstar to kick start a rebuild, then re-signing that player as the rebuild enters its next phase.
San Francisco Giants: The Giants are always intriguing, with enough money for seemingly anyone in the sport but perennially unable to land superstars. Their former GM, Farhan Zaidi, simply came up short in landing top stars, but could that change with Buster Posey now running baseball operations? It won’t be easy: San Francisco hasn’t been viewed as an attractive landing place to every player and agent, and some hitters have viewed Oracle Park as an extra impediment at a time when hitting is more difficult than ever before. Posey would be the key to making a Soto deal a reality, as he helped keep third baseman Matt Chapman around — working with Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, on that deal.
Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto was thrust into the spotlight — perhaps more by overzealous social media reports than reality — when its pursuit of Shohei Ohtani took off last offseason. But the theory was rooted in smart thinking: The Blue Jays’ offense has become too much of a right-handed group that ranked 30th, 26th and 27th in home runs from left-handed hitters over the past three years. After Toronto struck out on Ohtani, the club simply ran back what it had this season — and it failed miserably. The front office still needs that left-handed bat, so if it brings back most of its team — including keeping Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Toronto should throw all its chips at Soto.
Los Angeles Dodgers: The World Series champion Dodgers can never be considered out of the running for the best players in the world. Yes, they have a huge payroll already but they’re making money hand over fist thanks to the impact of Ohtani and, of course, their local television deal. It’s unclear if they would need Soto to take deferments or if they even want to add to the $300 million on the books, but L.A. is the land of stars and Soto fits the bill.
