Over the past three seasons, all of which saw the Phillies playing October baseball, three players have been at the center of the team’s success.

Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez. They may not be the most important pieces of the Phils’ three-year run of success, but they have been vital cogs, and it’s hard to imagine this team without them.

Schwarber has been the team’s stalwart, if unconventional, leadoff hitter in all three of his seasons in Philadelphia. He has slugged 131 home runs, hitting an NL-best 46 in ‘22, 47 in ‘23, and then 38 last season with a league-best 106 walks and a dramatically improved slash line across the board. Now the team’s full-time designated hitter, he has simply become one of the game’s most feared sluggers and clubhouse leader.

Entering his age-34 season, MLB Network just last week ranked Realmuto as baseball’s fourth-best catcher, despite a season in which he posted the lowest WAR of his career (3.0) since 2016, although injuries only allowed him to play 99 games. That was the fewest in a non-pandemic shortened season in his 11-year career. He still posted a decent .751 OPS last season, and in his six years behind the dish with the Phillies he has a .793 OPS, two All Star appearances, two Gold Gloves and two Silver Slugger Awards.

Suarez raced out to one of the most dominant starts of any starter in Phillies history in 2024, earning his first All Star nod and generating legitimate Cy Young Award talk. However, he didn’t play in the Midsummer Classic and missed two months due to back spasms. He was far less effective upon his return but still posted a 3.46 ERA in 27 starts and 150 ²⁄₃ innings, and has been one of the team’s most dependable postseason relievers over the years, with a 1.43 ERA in eight starts and 37.2 career playoff innings. He needed just two pitches to claim the last two outs of the 2022 NLCS against San Diego.

All three players enter the 2025 season in the final year of their contracts, and it is highly unlikely Dave Dombrowski will keep all three free agents-to-be in the fold. It’s possible all three could be gone.

Decisions, decisions.

So, who is most likely to sign a contract extension and stick around for a while longer, and who is most likely to leave? Here is my ranking in order of least likely-to-most likely to stay the Phillies past 2025.

Ranger Suarez

Suarez leaving the Phillies in free agency at the end of the season is by far the easiest call. Zack Wheeler is signed through 2027 at $42 million a year, Aaron Nola will make $24.5 million a season through 2030, Cristopher Sanchez signed an extension through ‘28 and Jesus Luzardo is under team control through next year. Andrew Painter is also on the way.

Suarez will either be the Phils’ No. 4 or 5 starter and is looking to have the kind of season in 2025 that will lead to a multi-year, life-changing contract for himself in free agency. It’s hard to see how the Phillies could afford to give Suarez the kind of deal he’s likely to seek now (frankly, they shouldn’t), and Suarez certainly isn’t going to sign a contract extension prior to hitting free agency with Scott Boras as his agent.

So, enjoy “Rager” while you can. It’s almost certainly his last season in Philadelphia.

Kyle Schwarber

It’s exceedingly difficult to decide between Schwarber and Realmuto. It’s likely a coin flip but, given the current makeup of the roster and looking down the road at alternatives, it feels like Phils would be less likely to prioritize giving an extension to Schwarber before Realmuto.

That may seem ridiculous, given their offensive outputs over the last three seasons and Schwarber’s role as the team’s heart and soul, but roster construction may be the deciding factor here.

If Schwarber has another season like the previous three (and there’s no reason to think he won’t) he’ll likely land another big-money free agent deal this off-season, probably in line with the four year, $79 million contract he signed prior to 2022 that turned out to be an absolute steal. He’s still only 32 years old and, at DH, he could have another 3-4 years of elite slugging ahead of him.

It’s hard to comprehend the Phillies moving forward without Schwarber, but frankly, there are more options to replace him than there would be Realmuto. Harper could slide into the DH spot which would allow Dombrowski to pursue a slugger at first base in trade or free agency, or they could slide Castellanos or some other position player to DH to add someone at a different spot.

However, it’s just as likely the front office understands Schwarber’s value, both on the field and off, and works out a multi-year contract extension now. It’s a move that would certainly be welcomed by the fanbase, and if the numbers are right, perhaps Schwarber would re-sign.

J.T. Realmuto

Realmuto has not been as productive as Schwarber, but there’s no doubt he’s still one of the very best players at a position that possesses a dearth of offensive ability. Realmuto’s ability to handle a pitching staff also cannot be undersold, especially as the Phillies lean on their starters and a bullpen with more question marks this season.

Perhaps the biggest reason to believe a Realmuto extension is more likely than one for Schwarber is a lack of internal and external options to replace him. The top free agents would include Sal Perez (should the Royals decide not to exercise a $13.5 million option on the 26-year-old), 35-year-old Christian Vazquez, 33-year-old Austin Hedges and 33-year-old Gary Sanchez. Realmuto would undoubtedly be the top catching free agent on the market.

Rafael Marchan will likely be his back-up this season, and while Marchan has shown some promise in the minors and in limited big league action, he has had a very difficult time staying healthy during his pro career. Eduardo Tait is considered by some to be a top-100 prospect and is certainly a very exciting young player, but he’s entering his age-18 season and will probably play most of 2025 in High-A ball. Even if he progresses rapidly through the system, no one should expect him to be this team’s every day catcher until midway through the 2027 season, if not 2028, at the earliest.

Re-signing the inconsistent Realmuto would allow the Phillies to ride with Marchan until Tait arrives while still giving them well-above-average production at the most important position on the diamond.

Decisions, decisions.