Believe it or not, spring training is just around the corner. The first workout for Red Sox pitchers and catchers is exactly two weeks away, on February 12, meaning players and coaches will start arriving at the Fenway South complex over the next week or so.

Boston’s roster looks different than it did at the end of last year with Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson and the injured Patrick Sandoval joining the group, Tyler O’Neill, Chris Martin, Danny Jansen having departed in free agency and Nick Pivetta and Kenley Jansen both still unsigned. Craig Breslow’s offseason work shouldn’t be done, but as of this writing, the Red Sox have done very little to impact their roster since Christmas.

The picture is incomplete, but that’s not stopping us from our first roster projection of 2024. For this one, we’ll include players on the team now and a couple addition predictions. Remember, this falls under the category of fun projections — and not hard reporting.

Here’s how we think the 26-man roster will shape up on Opening Day:

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STARTING PITCHERS (5 of these 6 will be healthy): LHP Garrett Crochet, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Kutter Crawford

ANALYSIS: We’ll start with a bit of a cop-out projection mostly because we’re not in the business of predicting injuries. The Red Sox will enter camp with six bonafide, talented starters — Crochet, Buehler, Houck, Bello, Giolito and Crawford — but somehow enter the regular season with just five. Pitching injuries during spring training are borderline inevitable and someone in this group is going to lag behind the others. It’s impossible to predict who. But Giolito’s coming off a serious injury, Buehler and Crochet aren’t that far removed from Tommy John surgery and the three homegrown guys are coming off massive workloads. The idea of a six-man rotation is intriguing to Sox decision-makers but in reality, the problem should solve itself in a somewhat unfortunate way.

That leaves three major-league ready, very capable depth options — Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester — in the Triple-A rotation to start the year. Prospect Hunter Dobbins will be right there with them, along with a veteran like non-roster invitee Sean Newcomb. Patrick Sandoval will start the year on the injured list and be in the mix come midseason.

The Red Sox have as much rotation depth as they’ve had in some time and they’re legitimately nine deep as camp begins. Count it as a very good problem to have.

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RELIEF PITCHERS (8): RHP Liam Hendriks, RHP Justin Slaten, LHP Aroldis Chapman, LHP Justin Wilson, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Robert Suárez*, RHP Luis Guerrero, RHP Zack Kelly

ANALYSIS: The closer competition will be a spring training topic for the first time in three years with Kenley Jansen gone. For now, we’ll lock three righties (Hendriks, Slaten and Whitlock) and two lefties (Chapman and Wilson) into the Opening Day bullpen, assuming they’re all ready to go (Whitlock is the most questionable). There’s a real path to the ninth inning for Hendriks, Slaten, Chapman and Whitlock and that process will play out in camp.

That leaves three open spots assuming the Red Sox want to keep someone like Criswell stretched out at Triple-A as a rotation fallback. Even though most of the top free agent names have already signed, the Red Sox could still use another talented righty and have the money to take on Suárez’s salary ($10 million in 2025 before an opt-out) in a trade with the Padres. He’s a strong fit, as are free agents David Robertson and Kyle Finnegan and Cardinals trade candidate Ryan Helsley. Bullpen is definitely a spot where the Red Sox can (and should) flex some financial muscle as the season approaches.

That leaves a bunch of internal options for the final couple of spots. On a long list, Kelly and Guerrero showed the most upside during their time in the big leagues last year and the fact they have some of the best pure stuff in the group will surely intrigue Alex Cora. Other 40-man options include righties Greg Weissert and Josh Winckowski and lefties Brennan Bernardino and Zach Penrod. With Chapman and Wilson in tow, it’s hard to envision a third lefty cracking the roster.

Intriguing non-roster invitees include wild cards like Michael Fulmer, Austin Adams, Isaiah Campbell, Jovani Moran, and yes, even Bryan Mata, who remains with the organization. Wyatt Mills, Noah Davis, Robert Stock, and Hobie Harris all have big league time as well. Chris Murphy will likely start the year on the 60-day IL.

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CATCHERS (2): C Connor Wong, C Carlos Narvaez

ANALYSIS: Wong is the unquestioned starter at the position, and with Kyle Teel out of the organization, the position appears to be his for the foreseeable future. That means there will be a competition to be Wong’s backup during spring training as the Red Sox have filled that need with a committee approach instead of locking someone in.

The two leading candidates are Narvaez (acquired from the Yankees) and Blake Sabol (acquired from the Giants), two under-the-radar winter trade additions. Narvaez has more upside and looks like the favorite — for now. The Sox will also have defensive standout Seby Zavala in camp (he’s a dark horse), along with returnees Mark Kolozvary and Nathan Hickey, who project for Triple-A.

The free agent market for catchers dried up before the Crochet/Teel trade, leaving few good veteran options for the Red Sox. They could add to the mix by signing someone like Yasmani Grandal or James McCann — or swinging a salary dump trade for old friend Christian Vázquez — but for now seem satisfied with what they have. It will not at all be a surprise if they add a non-roster catcher either before camp or toward the end of spring training when veterans opt out elsewhere.

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INFIELDERS (5): 1B Triston Casas, 2B Kristian Campbell, SS Trevor Story, 3B Rafael Devers, INF/OF Romy Gonzalez

ANALYSIS: Casas hasn’t been traded, so he’ll start at first. Story is the shortstop. And Devers, despite constant talk about moving positions, will once again be at third base unless something crazy (circling back on Nolan Arenado surely qualifies) happens.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but that leaves second base as the biggest question on the diamond for the Red Sox for about the 45th year in a row. Yes, Alex Bregman remains out there but the writing is on the wall for him to either return to Houston (it makes too much sense at this point) or take a bigger offer from Toronto or Detroit. The Red Sox simply aren’t aggressors in that market and never have been. So at this point, the chances are low.

Part of that calculus has to do with Campbell, who now more than ever appears to have a real shot at making the team as the Opening Day second baseman. While the Red Sox could bring in a stopgap like Brendan Rodgers, there’s a real sense Campbell could get the keys to second base soon and provide a right-handed bat from within. It would be a bold play for an organization that has slow-played prospects for years but it’s definitely in play — and it would have wide-ranging impacts on the rest of the roster.

Gonzalez is a valuable piece because he’s versatile and was one of the few guys on the team who crushed lefties (.879 OPS) last season. He can spell Casas at first against some lefties, too. That means Vaughn Grissom could very well be ticketed for Worcester. If Campbell seizes second base, Grissom’s lost 2024 is going to be even more damaging than it seemed at the time. The Red Sox value David Hamilton for speed and defense and they’re trying to make him more versatile by getting him outfield work this winter. He could be another early roster casualty thanks to Campbell, but he’ll make a big league impact at some point.

Nick Sogard is versatile enough to hold onto a 40-man spot and he’ll likely be at Triple-A to start. Newly signed veteran Abraham Toro is another capable depth option who will be in camp. Marcelo Mayer doesn’t seem to have a path to an Opening Day roster spot because he’s never played a game in Triple-A. But he could emerge fast with a strong first half.

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OUTFIELDERS (6): RF Wilyer Abreu, CF Ceddanne Rafaela, LF Jarren Duran, OF Randal Grichuk*, OF Rob Refsnyder, OF/DH Masataka Yoshida

ANALYSIS: The Red Sox have a supremely talented young outfield with Abreu and Duran in the mix, top prospect Roman Anthony coming up soon and Rafaela in the mix as well. Abreu and Duran are locks for the roster, as is Rafaela, who the Sox want to see in center field to start the year. The best version of Boston’s roster likely has Rafaela in a super-utility/backup role, but they’re not there yet. He’s the player in most danger of losing playing time to Anthony when he does come up.

Anthony won’t be in Triple-A long but at this point, it feels like the 20-year-old wunderkind would need to (somehow) exceed expectations in camp to make it. Unlike at second base, the Red Sox have enough outfield pieces in place where they don’t need to rush things. Again, it’ll be interesting to see how things shake out once he does get promoted.

Refsnyder’s role as a lefty-masher is important but the Red Sox still could use a righty-hitting veteran who can play outfield and get at-bats at designated hitter, too. Yes, Teoscar Hernández and Tyler O’Neill were ideal fits. Now, though, Randal Grichuk is probably the best of those options. The roster would fit better without Yoshida but he’s still on it and will have a spot, likely as the everyday DH

Nate Eaton is a non-roster guy who will be viewed as depth.

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