St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds | Kirk Irwin/GettyImages
Time is dwindling in the offseason. In just under three weeks, pitchers and catchers will report to the Cardinals spring training complex in Jupiter, Florida. Full-squad workouts begin just five days later. Just like that, Major League Baseball’s offseason is coming to a close.
Earlier this month, the Cardinals announced their list of non-roster invitees to spring training. These 26 individuals will be given every opportunity to make the 40-man roster out of camp and perhaps even start on the Opening Day roster. Players like JJ Wetherholt, Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, and Chase Davis are some of the club’s top prospects, and they all received an invite to the spring circuit.
However, it’s unlikely that any one of these young studs will break camp with the big-league team. The Cardinals’ 40-man roster currently sits at 39 players. The final spot could be filled via free agency, or an internal candidate could jump on this opportunity. Several other experienced prospects including Ian Bedell, Drew Rom, and Cesar Prieto received invites to spring training. Perhaps they jump on the opportunity.
40-man roster spots aside, the Cardinals still need to find 26 capable men to field their primary roster. As of now, things are pretty set in stone regarding the starting lineup. Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera will split catching duties, Willson Contreras will handle first base, some combination of Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado, and Nolan Gorman will fill out the infield, and Lars Nootbaar, Michael Siani, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson will be in the outfield.
The starting rotation will have Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz more than likely. The bullpen is always a bit of a crapshoot, but we can guarantee JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Helsley, John King, Ryan Fernandez, and Riley O’Brien.
For those of you keeping count, that is a total of 22 players. That leaves four spots open. Luken Baker will probably find his way onto the roster. Thomas Saggese made his debut last year, and he’s probably a shoo-in. Michael McGreevy also impressed in his MLB debut last year. Realistically, that leaves one spot open. Who will fill it?
Gordon Graceffo will make the opening day roster as a reliever.
Gordon Graceffo, too, made his major-league debut last year. The right-hander threw 7.2 innings last year while allowing four runs and ceding one home run. He struck out six batters and walked only one in his time.
For years, Graceffo has been a prospect who hasn’t quite hit his ceiling. He was drafted in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB Draft, and he has a career 3.97 ERA in the minors. He’s about as consistent as they come, but he lacks a true plus pitch, something that would really set him up well for success in the majors. His fastball sits 93-94, but it can touch 97 MPH. If he makes the Opening Day roster, he will find his spot in relief.
With Andrew Kittredge gone and the Cardinals not likely to sign a free agent so long as Nolan Arenado remains on the roster, Kittredge’s replacement will have to come internally. Graceffo could be just the man for the job.
Victor Scott II will start the year in Triple-A.
I am as disappointed as anyone with this revelation.
Victor Scott II is an electric, athletic, and talented ball player. He will have a long professional baseball career as a defensive-first center fielder with a decent ability to hit. However, it isn’t his time…yet.
VS2 was given a taste of the majors last year as a necessity; Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson, both of the club’s presumptive center field options, went down with injuries before the year started. Therefore, Scott was called upon to fill in for the two outfielders. His initial stint in the majors didn’t go as planned.
Scott finished his major-league debut season with a .179/.219/.283 slash line, two home runs, five stolen bases, and 10 runs batted in for a wRC+ of 40. He struck out 27% of the time, and he walked only 4% of the time. For a player who reached base nearly 35% of the time as a prospect, there was a clear shortage in his offensive production.
His average exit velocity was below average, and he elevated the ball at a much higher rate in the majors than he did in the minors (~30% fly-ball rate in the minors compared to 40.4% rate in the majors). Scott also wasn’t able to take advantage of his burning speed on the basepaths, for he reached base only 34 times in 155 plate appearances.
At Winter Warm-Up last weekend, Scott discussed what he could improve on this offseason heading into 2025. He spoke heavily about the need to study his play on both sides of the ball. He has spent ample time in Jupiter, Florida, this offseason preparing for the year, and he hopes to become a hit producer this year. He has been working diligently with new hitting coach Brant Brown to identify areas of improvement in his offensive approach.
Scott also discussed how he’s been working with new coach Jon Jay to improve his routes and better jumps on fly balls in the outfield. It’s been clear that Scott has been putting in the work this offseason to improve his game from a holistic approach.
The primary reason I believe Scott will be squeezed out of a roster spot heading into Opening Day would be the logjam of outfielders. Barring drastic shifts in spring, John Mozeliak has already stated that his preferred outfield alignment would include Lars Nootbaar, Michael Siani, and Jordan Walker with Alec Burleson as the fourth outfielder. If Nolan Arenado remains on the roster heading into 2025, Brendan Donovan will also find some outfield reps. It’s no fault of Scott’s that he will be squeezed off the roster this year.
Victor Scott was robbed of development last year when he was pushed to the major-league roster due to injuries. He’s clearly made cerebral and physical changes this offseason, but he could benefit by starting the year off in Memphis to test those changes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scott be the next man up if an injury occurs, though, and his spot on the 40-man roster helps his chances of breaking camp on the big-league squad.
Quinn Mathews needs more seasoning in the minors before making his MLB debut.
Quinn Mathews is another one of the Cardinals’ rising prospects. After being drafted in the fourth round of the 2023 draft, Mathews surprised everyone by having a fantastic 2024 season. He advanced through every level of the Cardinals’ minor-league system and reached Triple-A Memphis in September.
An ascendance that quick could lead some to believe that Quinn will break spring camp with the major-league squad. However, that won’t be the case this year.
Mathews, 24, is a very talented pitcher who will someday be a middle-of-the-rotation arm more than likely. Right now, he’s a bit behind on the depth chart. Barring any trades, the Cardinals have Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Michael McGreevy ahead of him in the rotation. Other pitchers such as Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Sem Robberse, and Gordon Graceffo will probably get a shot before Mathews.
A strong spring showing could catapult him up the depth chart, but the Cardinals will probably want to be patient with their rising star. His changeup is his best pitch by far, but he’s worked to add velocity and bite to both his fastball and slider, two pitches that could become quite dangerous for him down the road.
During Winter Warm-Up, Mathews stated that he does not necessarily have any “goals” for 2025 but that he does want to contribute to the team in any way possible. Whether that be making spot starts, helping in relief, or filling in for an injured starter for an extended period of time, Mathews wants to do all he can to help the team in 2025.
Mathews’ work this offseason has been focused on building up for the long season. He said that “the duration of the season kind of got to me in September I would say, physically as well as mentally. This offseason, I was kind of preparing for September…How do I get seven or eight more weeks out of my body?”
Mathews had a 2.76 ERA in 143.1 innings across 26 starts last year. He struck out an MiLB-leading 202 batters last year. He was exceptional in Low-A through Double-A, but his limited time in Triple-A was a bit of a struggle for the young southpaw. He had a 6.48 ERA in just 16.2 innings, so a return to Memphis could behoove both Mathews and the organization.
Quinn, along with Tink Hence, makes a formidable one-two pitching prospect duo. These two will be the staff leaders of the future, and rushing either along right now doesn’t bode well for them. Quinn Mathews will make his debut in 2025, but he should get more experience and time in Triple-A before taking on some of the best players in the world.
I would love to see Quinn break camp as one of the club’s five starting pitchers, but that doesn’t seem likely given his lack of minor-league experience. Don’t be surprised if he’s one of the first prospects called up to fill in due to an injury.
