The Braves and Cubs are among teams interested in right-handed reliever Ryne Stanek, according to a report from Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Stanek was listed among a number of relievers the Cubs have looked into earlier this week, though this is the first time a connection between the veteran and Atlanta has been reported.
Stanek, 33, split the 2024 campaign between the Mariners and Mets. Things did not go well for the veteran last year, as he pitched to a 4.88 ERA (78 ERA+) with a 4.14 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work, though he did manage to punch out 27.8% of his opponents despite those struggles. That down season came after a strong run with the Astros in Houston from 2021 to 2023, where he pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 173 2/3 innings with a 3.91 FIP. His numbers started to taper off a bit towards the end of his time in Houston, however, and a closer look at his numbers over the past four seasons reveals an interesting dichotomy.
During Stanek’s first two years with Houston, he posted a 2.41 ERA and 3.62 FIP. Since then, however, those figures have ballooned up to 4.50 and 4.36 respectively. That’s in spite of the fact that his strikeout rate during those peak years (28.2%) isn’t that far off from the 26% figure he’s posted the past two seasons. That mild drop in strikeouts has been more than made up for with a reduced walk rate, as well. From 2021 to ’22 Stanek walked a hefty 13.2% of opponents faced, but the past two years have seen that number drop to just 10.1%.
The culprit for that discrepancy lies within Stanek’s batted ball data. In that first pair of seasons, Stanek did quite well in limiting the worst types of contact. His barrel rate was a solid 7.1%, and while 43.5% of his batted balls allowed were fly balls just 7.8% of them left the yard to become home runs. The past two seasons, however, have seen Stanek start getting hit much harder. His barrel rate has jumped to 8.4% since the start of the 2023 season, and that’s caused him to become much more homer-happy in recent years. With fly balls now making up 51.6% of his batted balls allowed and 10.9% of those fly balls leaving the yard, his total amount of home runs allowed has nearly doubled over the past two years from where it was over his first two seasons in Houston.
Betting on a major rebound from a player who will turn 34 in July who has had troubling peripherals in back-to-back seasons and was a below-average pitcher last year always comes with a great deal of risk. With that being said, if an acquiring club can help Stanek get his home run problem under control in 2025 it’s easy to see the upside he could offer. The hard-throwing righty hasn’t lost anything off his fastball, which averaged 97.9 mph last year. His strikeout rate also rebounded in a big way last year after a noticeable drop in 2023, and in conjunction with his improved walk rates Stanek’s 17.4 K-BB% was the best he’s posted since 2018. The right-hander’s 3.56 SIERA was also the best figure he’s posted since that same season.
That upside could be enough to earn the veteran a major league deal this winter even in spite of his lackluster platform season. The Cubs are a sensible enough fit for the right-hander given their well-known pursuit of bullpen help this winter. While he’s hardly as impactful as other players Chicago has expressed interest in this winter like Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Ryan Pressly, and David Robertson, the club’s preference in recent years has been to focus their attention on reclamation projects for the bullpen like Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr. and Jorge Lopez. They’ve had some success in that area, and if they opt to dip into that pool of free agents again rather than sign a more reliable late-inning option Stanek’s velocity and previous track record of success should make him an attractive option.
As for Atlanta, the club has never been shy about paying for high-end relief talent. The Braves’ bullpen mix for 2025 already features Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson, and Aaron Bummer in the late innings but the loss of Joe Jimenez for most if not all of the 2025 campaign due to offseason surgery has left room for another veteran arm. Atlanta previously was involved in Scott’s market before he signed with the Dodgers, but they’ve since signed Jurickson Profar for their outfield mix and any remaining money in the budget may be better served patching up a rotation that’s lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency this winter. That could make Stanek an attractive and affordable option for the club to roll the dice on.
