If Robert Saleh rebuffs the 49ers and joins the Jaguars instead, he’ll likely be sorry in the not-so-distant future.
The San Francisco 49ers are unquestionably hoping former New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh ultimately declines (or at least doesn’t get) a job offer for the next head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Of course, the Niners want a reunion with Saleh and appear to be waiting it out so he can return as defensive coordinator under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
But, removing San Francisco from the equation for a little bit, there are plenty of reasons why Saleh would be wise to avoid the Jags in yet another coaching cycle while waiting for a better opportunity elsewhere, perhaps in a year’s time.
Sure, Jacksonville once employed Saleh when he was a defensive assistant prior to his rise with the 49ers, and that’d unquestionably make a nice little storyline.
However, in light of a second interview with the Jaguars for their head-coaching vacancy, Saleh might want to think twice about putting pen to paper there.
Here are some reasons why.
Reason No. 1: Jaguars are an unstable franchise
Owner Shad Khan has received his share of flak over the years, and it’s not too hard to include him in the conversation about why “bad teams stay bad.”
Indeed, the Jags have boasted winning seasons just three times since 2007 while finishing dead last in the AFC South eight times during that same span.
So, understandably, there has been plenty of turnover at head coach, including the recent ousting of Doug Pederson at the conclusion of 2024. Since 2012, only head coach Doug Marrone (2017-2020) has lasted at least four full seasons as head coach, and he’s just one of eight different head coaches (full time and interim) dating back to 2007.
That’s a lot of turnover, indicating Khan has yet to put together a formula for any sort of continuity.
Reason No. 2: Trent Baalke
Niners fans understand this one, and if they could issue a warning to Saleh, it’d likely center almost entirely upon San Francisco’s former general manager, Trent Baalke.
Now Jacksonville’s GM, Baalke has established a reputation for surviving head coach purges. He did it with the 49ers when they ultimately parted ways with Jim Harbaugh in 2015, then again after Harbaugh’s replacement a year later, Jim Tomsula, despite the Niners’ roster clearly falling apart at the time (and Baalke bearing plenty of responsibility for it).
Baalke can now add the post-Pederson survival to his list of accolades in this mold despite the shock associated with the former’s retention.
It’s evident Khan is committed to Baalke, which wouldn’t bode well for Saleh if he should join a franchise whose general manager has a history of clashes with head coaches.
Reason No. 3: It’d be hard for Robert Saleh to get a 3rd shot at being a head coach
A head coach getting fired is nothing new. And it doesn’t automatically destroy said coach’s chances for landing the same job with a new team. Heck, just look at the job Dan Quinn is doing with the Washington Commanders in year one after things fell apart during his previous head-coaching tenure with the Atlanta Falcons.
That said, a second firing is damming for any coach’s prospects for another head-coaching gig.
Saleh is likely absolved from the many woes the Jets experienced during his time there, and Gang Green’s subsequent falling apart after his firing only works in his favor.
Still, a second firing (which seems almost inevitable in Jacksonville) could easily relegate Saleh to the ranks of being a forever coordinator.
Reason No. 4: Robert Saleh would have his work cut out for him
It’s rare for new head coaches to inherit good teams with plenty of talent. In a way, Harbaugh was lucky back in 2011 when he took over a talented-yet-mismanaged San Francisco roster.
Saleh would have a quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, yes. But, to maximize the former first-overall pick, Saleh would need a home-run hire for offensive coordinator while relying on Baalke to infuse supporting talent to an offense that ranked 26th in points scored last season.
That won’t be a quick task.
Likewise, Saleh’s defensive specialty would be challenged to turn around a Jaguars defense that allowed an average of 5.9 yards per play last season, tied for second worst in the NFL in 2024.
Again, relying on Baalke to assist with that would be a risky proposition. Even if the two worked well together, turning the Jags around wouldn’t be a one-year affair. It’d take longer than that, likely much longer. Given Khan’s history of pulling the plug on coaches, would Saleh’s experience be greatly different than it was in New York?
If anything, Saleh might actually be wiser to wait it out, going back to the Bay Area for another year to see what better opportunities would await him in 2025.
