The MLB arbitration deadline passed on January 9 and the Baltimore Orioles were largely successful in keeping everyone happy.

The Orioles had 12 players that were arbitration eligible and were able to reach agreements with 11 of those players. Jorge Mateo is the lone holdout.

Mateo, who made $2.7 million in 2024, is reportedly asking for a $4 million salary in 2025. The Birds offered $3.1 million and the two parties are now taking those amounts to arbitration.

It’s worth noting MLB Trade Rumors, who were rather accurate with their Orioles projections, guessed that Mateo would receive a contract of $3.2 million.

There are plenty of reasons that Mateo should get the raise he is asking for. He is an incredible athlete that has shown that he has the tools to be a top tier MLB player. Obviously his speed is the first thing that comes to mind and it should.

Mateo ranks in the 99th percentile of all players with a 29.9 ft/s sprint speed. But he has so much more to offer.

Jorge Mateo has a lot to offer, but will he win his arbitration battle with the Orioles?

Defensively, Mateo has shown that he is capable of playing at a Gold Glove level at shortstop. He’s able to play the outfield and showed last season that he’s a more than capable second baseman.

Mateo’s athleticism and arm strength made up for any shortcomings due to his unfamiliarity with the position. The middle infield of Mateo and Gunnar Henderson was a joy for O’s fans to watch.

Then there’s his power. Mateo isn’t just fast, he’s strong. He’s hit some monster home runs and can drive the ball to the gap for extra bases.

In 2022 Mateo had 109 hits, 45 of which went for extra bases (13 homers, 25 doubles and 7 triples) in his only season as a regular starter. He also led the AL with 35 stolen bases.

Mateo possesses all the tools to be Gunnar Henderson or Bobby Witt Jr., he just doesn’t have the consistency. In 2016 Mateo was the New York Yankees top prospect and Aaron Judge was their number two.

The tools have always been there, Mateo just hasn’t been able to put it all together for any length of time.

In April of 2023 we got a glimpse of what Mateo can be, then in May his offense took a nose dive that lasted the rest of the season.

In 2024 Mateo was again solid when healthy and exciting to watch on the base paths, when he can get on.

A career .224 hitter with a 69/343 BB/K ratio, Mateo simply doesn’t get on base enough for his speed to impact the game the way we wish he could.

When it’s all said and done, it’s likely the arbitration will end in the Orioles’ favor.

Even with all of the potential Mateo has, he’s entering his age 30 season with five years of major league experience.

It is more likely than not that Mateo already is the MLB player he was going to become. Couple that with the fact that there is not a clear path to regular playing time with the Orioles behind Henderson, Jackson Holliday and others, it doesn’t look good for Mateo.

As talented as he is, he just hasn’t done enough to garner a $1.3 million raise