When the Toronto Blue Jays officially signed Jeff Hoffman last week, with the Philadelphia Phillies having signed Jordan Romano earlier this offseason, the two teams indirectly swapped elite relievers with each other without the facilitation of a trade. Philadelphia is hoping that Romano will be the missing piece to their back end of the bullpen, while Toronto is looking to Hoffman to help anchor their relief corps to bring it back into relevance for the 2025 season.

But who exactly comes out on top in the so-called “closer swap” between the Phillies and the Blue Jays? Various outlets have suggested that the Blue Jays are the winners, but is that really the case? Let’s take a closer look to be sure.

Who won the Phillies-Blue Jays closer swap?

First of all, Romano has proven to be one of the most consistent and dominant relievers in all of baseball since 2020, excluding last season, of course. As a two-time All-Star, he has maintained a 2.90 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, while striking out more than a batter per inning throughout his six-year MLB career. Although some could argue that Romano had a disastrous 2024 campaign, a lot of it had to be attributed to the injuries that he sustained.

Hoffman, on the other hand, has only put up stellar numbers in just his past two seasons with the Phillies. Prior to 2023, he had struggled to find much success in the majors, posting an ERA constantly above 4.00 and a WHIP above 1.50.

One of the more critical factors in determining who comes out as the winner will be the status of their health. For those who are bothered about potential lingering health issues with Romano from last season, that worry was put to rest when the Blue Jays clearly indicated that he has no medical concerns heading into 2025. That was ultimately verified when he passed his physical with the Phillies, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

However, for Hoffman, recent reports have revealed that he had actually failed his physical twice, nixing a potential deal with both the Atlanta Braves and the Baltimore Orioles before signing with the Blue Jays. Therefore, Toronto is either that desperate or they are gambling on the fact that the issue is just minor in nature.

Any ailment, no matter how minor, might ultimately affect his overall effectiveness and performance in the end. The Blue Jays have been there before with Kirby Yates just a few years ago, so they better hope it’s not déjà vu with Hoffman.

Phillies might actually have the edge in closer swap with the Blue Jays

The Phillies recruited Romano with the potential mindset that he could take over the closer’s role if he can bounce back from his 2024 season. At the same time, the Blue Jays have also indicated that they will likely give Hoffman the opportunity to close out games, as per MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson.

However, the main difference between the two is the fact that Romano has done it on a permanent basis for much of the past four seasons, whereas Hoffman has only seen spot duty in the role this past year with the Phillies. Despite excelling in his limited opportunities, doing it on a part-time basis is a whole lot different than full-time, as we witnessed with José Alvarado’s implosion this past season under similar circumstances. As a result, if both clubs are betting on the fact that their prized free agent signing will take on the closer’s role and run with it, then the Phillies likely have the upper hand with Romano’s breadth of past experience.

From that, one can see now that the Blue Jays might not be the clear-cut winners as first thought. In fact, the Phillies have potentially done better with the shorter-term, lower-cost bet on a reliable Romano. We undoubtedly wish all the best to both players in their success with their respective teams, but one thing is for sure, Phillies fans no longer need to fret too much about losing Hoffman for Romano, as Romano should surprise everyone if he ends up returning to form.