Three games into their first World Series since 2009, the New York Yankees found themselves in a spot no team wants to be in. They were down three games to none against a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers team. They were faced with the seemingly impossible task of having to win four in a row to win it all. That has been done once before in a postseason series, and never in the World Series.
New York won Game 4 handily by a final score of 11-4, keeping their season alive for at least another day. Anthony Volpe hit a grand slam, Gleyber Torres hit a three-run homer, and Austin Wells had his best game in months.
Getting on the board was big, but the Yankees still have little-to-no chance of pulling that off. They have to win three straight games against the Dodgers – two of which will be in Los Angeles – to win it all.
As far-fetched as it is for New York to win the Fall Classic, they should thank Dodgers manager Dave Roberts who showed seemingly no interest in winning Game 4 based on his pitching decisions. While yes, it’s obviously unlikely that the Yankees mount this comeback, the door is open for them to do just that. Here’s how it can be done.
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Game 5 of the World Series comes down to Gerrit Cole – it’s that simple. The Yankees gave him a nine-year contract worth $324 million to win games like these, and that’s what he has to do. When he’s on, he can will his team to a victory.
In Game 1 of this series, Cole absolutely pitched well enough for the Yankees to win. He allowed just one run, and it was thanks in large part to some shoddy defense from Juan Soto, in six innings of work. He was pulled despite throwing just 88 pitches. An outing similar or better from the right-hander would go a long way.
This Yankees bullpen is exhausted, as their starters not named Cole have combined to throw just 10 innings in three games. Luke Weaver, Tim Hill, Mark Leiter Jr., and Clay Holmes have all pitched in each of the last two games. They’ll almost certainly all be available for Game 5 with the season on the line, but how effective will they be? Quality length from Cole is a must. The Yankees need an ace-type of performance.
Figuring out Jack Flaherty is tough, especially when his curveball is as effective as it was in Game 1 of this series (12 Yankees whiffs on 17 swings per Baseball Savant), but they did get to him in the sixth inning of that game with Giancarlo Stanton launching a two-run homer, knocking him out of the contest immediately after the fact.
Their offense woke up in Game 4, but it’d be nice to see them continue to show signs of life in what’ll be a much tougher Game 5. If they can put some pressure on Flaherty and shorten his outing that’d be great, but regardless of how this offense does, it all comes down to Cole. The Yankees badly need the reigning AL Cy Young winner to send this series back to Los Angeles.
How the Yankees can win Game 6 of the World Series
If the Yankees can get this far, that’d be impressive. They were essentially done after losing each of the first three games of the World Series, so sending it back to Los Angeles would be a small victory in itself. With that being said, though, the Yankees have their minds on winning the whole thing.
Game 6 is going to be a whole lot tougher to win than Game 5 for a couple of reasons. New York won’t have Gerrit Cole, and the Dodgers will have Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The one clear advantage, at least on paper, that the Yankees had entering this series was with their rotation being better than that of the Dodgers. This matchup does not favor the Yankees, and we saw that in Game 2.
With that being said, though, the Yankees are going to need more than what they got from Carlos Rodon, who allowed four runs on six hits in just 3.1 innings of work. Rodon signed a contract in free agency worth $162 million to pitch like an ace in big moments. Even if he isn’t Cole, he should be able to give the Yankees better than his last appearance.
More importantly, Aaron Boone does not have the luxury to wait around for his southpaw to completely implode. Rodon has allowed 11 earned runs this postseason, seven of which have come in two abysmal innings. Rodon is prone to the big inning, which can be a huge momentum killer in an elimination game. Getting length from Rodon would be nice, but with a day off the day prior, Rodon’s leash has to be microscopic.
The Yankees bullpen has been a surprising strength in this series. They didn’t allow a single run in relief of Rodon in 4.2 innings in Game 2. They’ve allowed a total of six runs (five earned) in 18.2 innings of work this series, four of which came on the Freddie Freeman walk-off Grand Slam in Game 1. Outside of that one rough inning, they’ve been nothing short of dominant. Leaning on them is a must.
On the offensive side, the Yankees are simply going to have to show up. The task is tough against Yamamoto, obviously, but will this be the game that Aaron Judge breaks out? Does Giancarlo Stanton have another big moment in him? It can’t be all Juan Soto, whose home run against Yamamoto was the lone hit New York managed against him in Game 2 and the only run the Yankees have scored against this right-hander in 13.1 innings (including his regular season start against NYY).
Getting to Game 7 is a daunting task, but if the pitchers who are making a combined $486 million show up, it isn’t completely impossible. Still, the task of actually winning a Game 7 is incredibly difficult even after mounting the comeback to even the series.
The Yankees should have the psychological advantage given the fact that they just evened up the series in improbable fashion, but again, the advantage that they were assumed to have in the rotation, isn’t necessarily an advantage in Game 7. In fact, with how Walker Buehler has looked, it would be safe to say that the Dodgers have the edge there.
Buehler delivered five scoreless innings in a 4-2 Dodgers win in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing just two hits and striking out five. That came after he threw four scoreless innings against the New York Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS. Buehler had a rough regular season, but he has always been dynamite in October.
While Buehler did look great, the Yankees helped him out a lot. The right-hander threw a total of 45 strikes on the night, 16 of which were called. The Yankees looked at 16 pitches in the zone and didn’t offer at those pitches. Granted, some of them were off the plate in what was a frustrating strike zone from home plate umpire Mark Carlson, but the Yankees were not as aggressive as they needed to be. Nine of the called strikes were on fastballs, which shouldn’t happen. Fastballs in the zone need to, at the very least, be swung at.
Buehler had never pitched against the Yankees before, so perhaps New York’s tentativeness had to do with the fact that they hadn’t seen him. Now that they’ve seen him, hopefully they’re more prepared to let it rip in a Game 7.
With their pitching, Boone must have the same kind of approach with Clarke Schmidt as he should with Rodon. Getting length would be nice, but you can’t expect it. He’s allowed seven runs this postseason in 14.1 innings of work. He’s allowed a run in only four of those innings. Like Rodon, Schmidt has had a crooked number problem in October. Six of the seven earned runs he’s allowed in the postseason have come in three combined innings.
Leaning on the bullpen in Los Angeles and a better approach at the plate against Buehler can give the Yankees their best shot at a 28th World Series win.
Of course, mounting this kind of comeback is easier said than done. Things like better base running, better defense, and any sort of meaningful contribution from Judge matter in all three of these games. Still, while a comeback is extremely unlikely, the Dodgers gave them just a little bit of hope.