Philadelphia Phillies

2024 record: 95-67

First place, NL East

Team ERA: 3.86 (11th in MLB)

Team OPS: .750 (5th in MLB)

What Went Right

The offense was tremendous for the Phillies again. They finished 5th in runs scored, 6th in stolen bases, 7th in home runs, and 8th in wRC+. Kyle Schwarber had his best offensive season since 2021. Even though he didn’t reach the 40 home run mark, he had his best batting average and lowest strikeout rate in three seasons. He wasn’t as fly ball heavy, which helped boost his batting average and he chased out of the zone less than he has in three years as well. While he’s an unconventional leadoff hitter, he’s been a great one for the Phillies. The Phillies also got another strong season from Bryce Harper, who has acquitted himself well at first base. The 32-year-old slashed .285/.373/.525 in 145 games with 30 home runs, 85 runs, 87 RBI, and seven steals. He has one of the safest floors of any hitter in fantasy baseball; although, we should note this is the first time he didn’t reach double-digit steals in a full season since 2017. It was also his lowest batting average in a full season since 2019, so perhaps we’re beginning the slight decline phase of his career.

Even though the Phillies pitching disappointed in the postseason, their bullpen was 6th in baseball in strikeout rate, while their starters were 6th in K-BB%. Each of their four primary starting pitchers had ERAs under 3.60, and Zack Wheeler continues to be one of the most reliable starters in fantasy and real baseball, posting a 2.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 28.5% strikeout rate in 200 innings. While Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez didn’t reach those heights, they all remain fantasy-viable in all formats with Nola riding his curveball to another solid season despite a dip in strikeouts and more hits allowed.

What Went Wrong

Not a lot went wrong for the Phillies in the regular season since they posted the second-best record in baseball. However, we may have seen the beginning of a decline for J.T. Realmuto. The 33-year-old battled knee injuries and played just 99 games. That led to just two stolen bases, and as a .260 hitter with 20 home run power, the lack of steals and declining health put him in the middle of a large pack of catching options, not near the top any longer. The Phillies also got nothing from their fifth starter, Taijuan Walker, who was a disaster in the rotation. Depending on your defensive metric of choice, the Phillies were a poor defensive team, particularly in the outfield with Nick Castellanos. The team tried to improve their outfield defense with a combination of Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh, but neither offered much offensively. The Phillies also had some solid relievers, but their bullpen ERA was 14th in baseball, and they seemed to struggle to find a reliable closer throughout a full season. It was an issue that reared its ugly head in the postseason.

Fantasy Slants

– We may have seen the end of Trea Turner as an elite fantasy shortstop option. With Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, and Elly De La Cruz taking over the position, Turner just 19 stolen bases in 121 games in 2024. While that pace isn’t far from what he has done in the last few seasons, he also attempted just 30 steals in 2022 and attempted just 30 steals in 2023. Turner slashed .295/.338/.469 this season with 88 runs scored and 21 home runs, so he is still a good fantasy player and will produce solid batting average and run totals while hitting near the top of an elite lineup; however, his stolen bases are now nowhere near the top players in the league. Turner will be 32 years old next season and if you can only count on him for 25-30 steals, that might put him closer to players like Oneil Cruz than the other shortstops going in the first two rounds.

– Alec Bohm followed up his career year in 2023 with a little bit more of the same. His home run total did dip from 20 to 15, but he put up a solid .280 batting average and drove in 97 runs hitting in the middle of an elite lineup. Bohm is not going to run and he’s likely always going to be a 15-20 home run bat, but if you wait to draft a third baseman and need an option to drive in runs and hit for a high batting average, he can be a solid fantasy asset.

– Nick Castellanos had his lowest strikeout rate since 2021, but the rest of his fantasy production appears to be on the decline. He’ll be 33 next year and is coming off a season in which he hit .254/.311/.431 with 23 home runs, 80 runs scored, 86 RBI, and six steals in 162 games. You’re not turning your nose up at that, and his batting average was significantly better in the second half of the year, but he is no longer an elite source of power, and he’s never been a reliable source of speed or batting average, so he has fallen into a large clump of outfielders that could be your OF4-5 in fantasy leagues.

– Brandon Marsh remains on the fantasy radar in deeper formats if he gets another year to start in center field. What he does isn’t eye-catching, but it’s useful. Marsh slashed .249/.328/.419 in 135 games with 16 home runs and 19 steals. He traded some batting average for a little more power this season, an outfielder in an elite lineup that can go 15/20 has value in 15-team leagues and deeper.

– As I alluded to earlier, the Phillies have a safe and stable rotation. Wheeler is an elite fantasy ace, while Aaron Nola is a solid SP2. Both Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez make for a great back-end of your fantasy rotation starters who have more value in deeper formats. The Phillies just need a fifth starter.

– Perhaps one of the trio of prospects Andrew Painter, Seth Johnson, and Mick Abel will emerge as an option for the rotation. Painter is the leader in that competition for now. The 21-year-old missed all of this past season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he is back and pitching in the Arizona Fall League right now. The Phillies may want somebody else to win the job out of spring training, but Painter, who is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, could force their hand. Seth Johnson struggled in his one MLB start this year, but he was solid for Baltimore in Triple-A and also for Philadelphia this year, pitching to a 2.74 ERA in 23 innings after the trade; although he did suffer from poor command. Lastly, Mick Abel followed up a good 2023 season with a dismal 2024 year that had a 6.46 ERA and 7.6% K-BB% in 108.2 innings. However, he’ll be 24 years old next year, and the Phillies may look to give him a shot if he has a good spring training.

– With both Carlos Estevez and Jeff Hoffman set to be free agents, the Phillies will need to find a new closer. Perhaps one of Orion Kerkering or Matt Strahm can emerge. The 23-year-old Kerkering certainly has closer stuff and pitched to a 2.29 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 63 innings this season in a set-up role. He has no MLB saves to his name yet, so the team would need to feel comfortable with his demeanor back there to start him off in the closer role. Strahm has closed games as part of a committee before, but the left-hander has also been immensely valuable in multi-inning stints, so the Phillies may want to keep him there.

Key Free Agents

Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Spencer Turnbull

Team Needs

Closer should be at the top of the Phillies’ list with Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez potentially leaving in free agency. The Phillies still have Orion Kerkering, but the Phillies bullpen was abysmal against the Mets in the NLDS loss, and they will surely want to add a few options to the back end of the bullpen this offseason. They also need to decide if their fifth starter will be a free agent or one of the younger pitchers in their organization. The infield appears set with Harper, Turner, Bohm, and Bryson Stott, and Nick Castellanos will likely return as the right fielder, which means if they decide to give Brandon Marsh another year in center field, the only opening in the lineup is in left field where Austin Hays finished the season. That being said, you don’t need to do many things differently when you have the second-best record in the league.